China launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile into the South Pacific Ocean on Monday, a rare test of its strategic nuclear capability that has drawn international rebuke and been interpreted by experts as a message to the United States.
The People's Liberation Army's test, launched from a nuclear-powered submarine, demonstrated the sea-based leg of China's nuclear triad, signifying its ability to launch a retaliatory strike even if first attacked.
"The most important message is the PLA is becoming a powerful military with a very strong strategic nuclear capability," said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He added that the missile test indicated China possesses a "second-strike capability."
Beijing stated the launch was part of annual exercises, suggesting similar tests may occur in the future. K. Tristan Tang, a Nonresident Fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, described the event as a "systematic move, not an isolated event."
The missile test comes as China accelerates its construction of nuclear-powered submarines, reportedly building them at a faster rate than the U.S. in the past five years, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Regional Concerns and Historical Context
The use of international waters in the South Pacific, a region with treaties prohibiting nuclear testing, has drawn criticism from island nations. This act has reignited concerns over historical nuclear testing by the U.S., UK, and France in the Pacific, which has led to environmental contamination and long-term health issues for some island populations.
The 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga established the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, prohibiting nuclear weapons within the region. China ratified protocols to this treaty in 1987, agreeing not to test nuclear weapons or threaten their use against signatories.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale expressed dismay, stating, "China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does. This is not … good in our region." While U.S. forces also conduct missile tests in the Pacific, they reportedly avoid the treaty-protected area.
Australia and New Zealand, major powers in the region, cited insufficient prior notice for the test. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the launch "a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region."
China's Ministry of Defense defended the launch, asserting that relevant countries were informed in advance, demonstrating "openness and transparency."
Speculation on Missile Type
Details regarding the specific missile fired remain unclear. Taiwan's National Security Council suggested it was a JL-2, an older submarine-launched ballistic missile. However, Chinese state media cited experts who believe it was likely a JL-3, a newer missile with a longer range capable of striking targets across the Pacific.
Zhao noted that as China emerges as a significant military power, it should face the same international scrutiny and standards applied to countries like the U.S., UK, and France.