The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s recently funded deportation and border-enforcement measures will remove roughly 320,000 people from the United States over the next decade and slow overall population growth.
The CBO said roughly 290,000 immigrants could be removed under the administration’s enforcement plans and another 30,000 people might leave voluntarily. Those estimates reflect components of a tax and spending law enacted in July that includes about $150 billion over four years for an expanded border wall, more detention capacity and thousands of additional immigration and law-enforcement staff aimed at a stepped-up deportation agenda.
Those reductions in immigration, combined with a lower projected fertility rate, lead the CBO to estimate that the U.S. population will be about 4.5 million smaller in 2035 than the office projected in January. The agency also projected a U.S. population of roughly 367 million in 2055, while cautioning that population projections are “highly uncertain.”
The report noted demographic shifts that carry economic implications: the nation would have fewer people ages 25 to 54 — the age group most likely to participate in the labor force — than previously projected. The CBO did not provide a direct estimate of the law’s impact on gross domestic product, federal revenues or spending in the report, but it flagged that a smaller working-age population could affect the economy and the government’s budget.
The agency also found that, under its updated assumptions, deaths would exceed births in 2031, two years earlier than it had projected in January. That earlier crossover point is driven by the combination of lower fertility and the reduced inflow of immigrants that otherwise would contribute to population growth.
Democrats in Congress warned during debate over the law that large-scale deportations could harm the U.S. economy and raise prices on consumer goods. In the White House, Trump has urged policies aimed at encouraging higher birth rates and has spoken of wanting a “baby boom,” but the CBO said it found no evidence in current trends that such an outcome would occur as a result of the enacted measures.
The enacted funding package directs money to an array of enforcement activities, including an extension of the United States’ southern border wall, expanded detention centers and hiring thousands more immigration enforcement personnel. The CBO’s population estimate incorporates the office’s judgment about how those measures are likely to affect removals and voluntary departures over the next decade.
Analysts and policymakers cautioned that the CBO’s numbers are subject to change as future administrations, economic conditions and migration patterns evolve. The CBO’s projection offers an updated baseline that lawmakers and agencies may use when assessing long-term fiscal and economic implications of current immigration policy.