Canada's Prime Minister Warns U.S. is Trying to 'Break' Nation Amid Trump's '51st State' Rhetoric

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Thursday that the United States is attempting to sow discord within Canada, urging Albertans to vote against a separation referendum. His remarks came as former U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his ambition to annex Canada, suggesting it should "end up being the 51st state."

Carney made the comments at a rally in Calgary, Alberta, ahead of a vote on whether the province should hold a referendum on independence. "There are some outside our borders who are working to break us, so they can own us," Carney stated, echoing previous warnings about American dominance, though he did not explicitly name the U.S.

Trump, speaking at a rally in Arizona, accused Canada of treating the U.S. "very badly" and vowed to prevent it from continuing, stating, "it's a whole different ballgame now [that] Trump is in town."

The U.S. and Canada are currently engaged in a contentious trade standoff, which began after negotiations collapsed in August. Canada's retaliatory tariffs went into effect last month, mirroring economic pressure previously imposed by the U.S. Carney has promoted a "Buy Canadian" movement to encourage consumers to choose domestic products over U.S. goods.

Former Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland stated that deepening economic ties with a neighbor that "openly says they want to take you over" would be dangerous. Carney admitted in a previous interview that he had studied the risk of U.S. actions given Trump's rhetoric, describing it as "extreme tail risk" that requires risk management.

Trump's "51st state" remarks coincide with Carney's "Canada Strong" strategy, which aims to unite the country. Polling suggests that a majority of Albertans intend to remain part of Canada, despite a growing separatist movement. The recent victory of the separatist Parti Québécois in Quebec, whose leader intends to hold a referendum on independence, further complicates matters for Carney.

Experts suggest that external pressure from the U.S. could paradoxically unify Canadians. Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Dalhousie University, noted that Trump's comments have been unifying and that "there isn't widespread panic that the country is coming apart."

Research from the Environics Institute for Survey Research in 2025 indicated that in most provinces, residents feel a stronger attachment to Canada than to their respective provinces.

Trump's Remarks Complicate Unity Efforts

Trump's accusations that Canada has exploited the U.S. in trade and security predate Carney's tenure as Prime Minister, suggesting a deeper friction than a personal dispute.

Patrick Leblond, a professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa, characterized Carney's discussion of "tail risk" as a potentially high-impact, low-probability event. He noted that Trump's economic actions and threats have been more damaging than his annexation remarks, describing Trump as having "weaponized market access to the U.S."

The U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner, with substantial goods and services crossing the border daily. Despite a slight decrease in trade value from 2024 to 2025, the total remained significant.

Annexation threats have raised concerns about their impact on Carney's "Canada Strong" strategy. The government has pledged to enhance security against foreign adversaries and protect Canadian values.

While the Parti Québécois won in Quebec, support for separatism in the province remains low. Turnbull argued that Quebec's cultural protections within the Canadian federation would be lost in the U.S., making alignment with the U.S. an unlikely motivation for separatism.

The immediate risk for Carney lies in Alberta, where residents are voting on whether to hold a referendum on separation. Polling indicates that a majority of Albertans favor remaining part of Canada.

Carney, who was raised in Alberta, urged voters to "stand up for Alberta, the heart of Canada" and recognize mutual responsibility.

How Trump's Threats Could Also Help Carney

Trump's past statements about making Canada the "51st state" have been a recurring theme. After Trudeau's resignation and leading up to a general election, Carney's Liberal Party saw a significant rise in polls, with his message of defiance against Trump serving as a rallying point.

Favorable views of the U.S. among Canadians have declined, with China holding a more positive perception in a 2026 Pew Research Center survey. Leblond suggested that continued annexation threats could further unite Canadians and decrease trust in the U.S. as a partner.

Carney's domestic approval rating has increased since the U.S.-Canada trade war reignited in August.

His resistance to American economic pressures appears to resonate strongly, particularly in Quebec, where his approval rating saw a significant increase between August and September. Turnbull stated that support for Carney's decision to withdraw from trade negotiations fostered a sense of "patriotism and loyalty."

This sentiment is reflected in the growing "Buy Canadian" movement, a boycott of U.S. products aimed at stimulating the Canadian economy.

Carney Strengthens International Alliances

In September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to become the bloc's first "associate member," a proposal Carney supported, emphasizing that "Europe and Canada are stronger together."

Carney warned that "economic integration is now being weaponized, tariffs being used to exert pressure," and "financial mechanisms have been used for coercion," in an apparent reference to the trade dispute with the U.S. Trump called the membership proposal "laughable" and threatened economic sanctions.

Leblond noted that Canada is diversifying its partnerships, indicating that while business with the U.S. will continue, it is no longer the "preferred partner." Carney aims to build relations with nations that share similar values regarding rules-based trade and investment.

During his European visit, Carney also met with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and formally applied for Canada to join the Joint Expeditionary Force, a defense and security coalition.

Earlier in the year, Carney announced a new strategic partnership with China focused on energy, agri-food, and trade, agreeing to reduce tariffs on Chinese electric cars in exchange for lower tariffs on Canadian farm products.

These strengthened international ties appear to be popular domestically. A September survey indicated significant Canadian support for closer integration with the E.U., and an earlier poll showed majority support for stronger trade ties with China.