Canada Prepares for Unthinkable US Invasion Scenario

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that his government has prepared for a scenario of a United States invasion, a possibility he described as a "long shot" but one that must be considered for risk management purposes. The preparations come as the US-Canada relationship is being redefined, particularly in light of Donald Trump's presidency, which has seen the imposition of global tariffs and repeated suggestions that Canada could become the 51st state.

While acknowledging the low probability of such an event, Carney stated his responsibility to consider all eventualities. The White House, in a statement to the BBC, asserted that President Trump has "done more than anyone to protect the great people of Canada" and suggested in 2025 that military force against Canada was "highly unlikely," favoring economic pressure to achieve political aims.

Military experts generally consider an invasion a remote possibility, citing the deep and extensive defense cooperation between the two nations. Both countries are members of NATO, a mutual defense alliance that mandates members to defend one another if attacked. They also collaborate on North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) missions and share intelligence.

However, the idea has gained traction in Canadian public consciousness. A January poll indicated that over 30% of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely, particularly after the US operation to capture Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.

Historical Context and Modern Concerns

The historical relationship between Canada and the United States has long been shaped by the former's resistance to American expansionism. Tim Foran, a researcher at the Canadian War Museum, noted that "fear of the United States is foundational to the political project that is Canada." Canada was formed from British North American colonies that remained loyal to the Crown during the American Revolution, during which the nascent US attempted invasions of Quebec and Montreal. The War of 1812 also saw repeated American invasions of Canadian territories, which ended in a stalemate, famously including the British burning of Washington D.C.

Concerns about US power also led Canada to contemplate war with the US after World War I, prompting military generals to conduct reconnaissance missions along the border, posing as tourists to gather intelligence on infrastructure. Andrew Burtch, another researcher at the Canadian War Museum, noted that while war was unlikely, preparedness was a standard military practice.

Potential Scenarios and Defense Preparedness

Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security at the University of New Haven, suggested that Canada's preparations signify a shift in the global order. He also raised questions about the extent to which Canada should continue its close military partnership with the US, given the potential for intelligence to be used offensively.

If a conflict were to occur, a theoretical model suggests a US attack could overwhelm Canada's strategic positions within a week, forcing Canadian forces into guerilla warfare. Allied nations like France and Britain would likely be called upon for support. This theoretical model is reportedly the first time in a century Canada has planned for an American assault. Lt-Gen Christopher Coates, a former Royal Canadian Air Force officer, noted that Canada has been slower than some NATO allies in developing response plans for ground invasions, and is now working to catch up in an era of geopolitical unpredictability. This has led to calls for a significant expansion of the Canadian military, including the addition of citizen soldiers.

Conversely, an invasion would present significant challenges for the US. Schmidt posited that many American officers would view an order to invade Canada as illegal and immoral, potentially leading to resignations. He speculated that any US action would likely focus on acquiring resources like oil and minerals and achieving political decapitation, mirroring operations seen in Venezuela. Despite the US military's superior capacity, Schmidt acknowledged that "pound for pound" Canadian soldiers would mount a formidable defense due to the mutual respect built through joint training and operations.