California voters remain divided on a proposed one-time tax on billionaires, with the measure holding a narrow lead but falling short of a majority, according to a UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times poll. Meanwhile, an initiative to implement stricter voter identification rules faces significant opposition.
Proposition 40, the billionaire tax, garnered 48% support compared to 41% opposition, with 11% undecided. "It’s got an early lead, but it’s not a very large lead, and it’s not a majority," poll director Mark DiCamillo told the Times. "Usually, for ballot propositions, you want the yes side to be above 50%, and that’s not where it is right now."
The proposed tax has created a split within the Democratic party. While many labor groups support it as a means to offset federal health cuts, prominent figures like Governor Gavin Newsom have expressed concerns that it could harm the state's economy. The measure's success is crucial as billionaires, such as Sergey Brin, have funded competing initiatives that could potentially override Proposition 40 if they receive more votes. DiCamillo noted that the "no" campaign is expected to be substantial, potentially confusing voters.
Demographic analysis from the poll indicated stronger support for the billionaire tax among younger Californians, minorities, women, and lower-income voters. Conversely, white voters, men, and those earning $200,000 or more annually were less likely to back the measure.
In contrast, Proposition 39, which would institute enhanced voter identification requirements, is opposed by over half of potential voters, with only 42% support. The divide on this proposition is sharply partisan, with 80% of Democrats opposing it and 90% of Republicans supporting it. Unaffiliated voters also lean against it, with 54% opposed and 36% in favor.
"It’s a very traditional Democrat versus Republican split," DiCamillo stated, anticipating minimal shifts in these numbers. State Republicans are championing Proposition 39, asserting that most Californians view voter ID requirements as common sense. However, they have criticized a description rewrite by Democratic State Attorney General Rob Bonta, which they argue frames the measure negatively. The original title stated the measure "establishes additional voter identification and citizenship verification requirements." Bonta's office revised this to "Prohibits citizens from voting unless they present government-issued identification." Supporters of the proposition sued Bonta over the change but were unsuccessful in court.
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a key proponent of the measure, claimed that attempts to alter the title were a "corrupt" effort to rig the election, stating that "California politicians know that a supermajority of California voters support Prop 39’s bipartisan solution for Voter ID — so now they are corruptly trying to rig the election by putting a biased and dishonest title on this common-sense measure."
The poll, conducted by UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times, surveyed 4,207 California registered voters online between August 3 and 9, with a margin of error of approximately 2.5 percentage points. Both Proposition 39 and Proposition 40 are slated for the November ballot.