California's Proposition 47, a 2014 ballot measure that reclassified certain felonies as misdemeanors, may have contributed to an increase in unsheltered homelessness and drug use in the state, according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC).
The study suggests the measure, which downgraded some drug and property crimes, could be linked to approximately 7,000 additional Californians experiencing unsheltered homelessness between 2015 and 2019. This figure represents about 20% of the state's overall increase in unsheltered homelessness during that period, based on U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data.
Researchers also found that Proposition 47 likely contributed to a 7% to 8% increase in drug use, as indicated by overdose deaths and hospitalizations. Concurrently, the number of Californians receiving drug treatment decreased by 20%, with fewer individuals being referred to treatment programs by the courts.
When enacted, Proposition 47 was partly intended to address prison overcrowding and did result in reduced incarceration rates. However, the new findings raise questions about the unintended consequences of this reform, potentially linking it to a rise in street homelessness, increased substance abuse, and a decline in treatment engagement.
Establishing a Connection
According to Magnus Lofstrom, the lead author of the PPIC report, this is the first study to establish a direct connection between Proposition 47 and homelessness. The researchers employed a comparative approach, analyzing California's trends against states with similar pre-enactment homelessness patterns. They also observed correlations within California, noting that counties with more significant reductions in drug arrests and jail populations tended to experience greater increases in homelessness and overdose rates.
The precise mechanisms by which Proposition 47 influenced homelessness remain less clear. The study's authors could not definitively determine the extent to which increased drug use or the shift of individuals who might have previously been incarcerated to living on the streets contributed to the rise in homelessness. Lofstrom posits that both factors likely played a role, acknowledging that jails and prisons can serve as a de facto shelter for those experiencing or at risk of homelessness.
Subsequent Policy Changes
California voters later took steps to modify the policy. In 2024, Proposition 36 was approved, which reinstated more severe penalties for specific drug and theft offenses. While supporters argued this measure would help curb drug use and homelessness, it did not include provisions for funding treatment or housing initiatives.
The PPIC researchers emphasized that Proposition 47 is not the sole explanation for California's extensive homelessness crisis, but it appears to be a significant contributing factor to specific trends observed in the years following its implementation.