Researchers at the University of California, Riverside, have developed a method that can identify the most likely locations for some of the world's largest earthquakes. The approach focuses on determining where stress has accumulated along major fault lines, enabling scientists to pinpoint potential future earthquake hotspots. This development comes as a magnitude 3.2 earthquake recently shook parts of Los Angeles County.
The US Geological Survey recorded the tremor near Compton shortly after midnight, with the epicenter located two miles southeast of the city. While felt by residents, no major impact was reported from the minor quake.
The new methodology, developed by geophysicists Gareth Funning and Axel Periollat, utilizes GPS measurements to track ground movement. An algorithm then analyzes this data to identify sections of fault lines that have accumulated significant strain and are therefore more prone to generating large earthquakes. This strain measurement technique was detailed in a recently published study.
The researchers have concentrated their efforts on subduction zones, which are areas where one tectonic plate slides beneath another. These zones are known to produce the world's most powerful earthquakes, capable of reaching magnitudes of 8.5 or higher.
As an example, the method was able to pinpoint the location of a significant earthquake that struck Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula in July 2025, an event that prompted tsunami warnings along the U.S. West Coast. The research also indicated that this earthquake was not as massive as one that occurred in the same region in 1952, a conclusion partly supported by the smaller tsunami generated by the more recent event.
"We had an idea where the strain was accumulating based on a relatively limited data set," Axel Periollat told UC Riverside News. "Seeing it work so well confirmed that this approach has real potential."
UC Riverside scientists are now applying similar techniques to better understand fault lines within California, including the Hayward Fault in the Bay Area. This fault exhibits both creeping and locked sections, similar to subduction zones, prompting an investigation into identifying the parts most likely to produce future earthquakes.
While the method does not predict the timing or exact magnitude of earthquakes, or potential consequences such as tsunamis, researchers emphasize that knowing where major seismic events are most likely to occur can aid communities in long-term preparedness. Gareth Funning stated, "Your peace of mind shouldn’t come from believing we can forecast the exact earthquake. Especially where we live in Southern California, it’s not a matter of if, but when. There is no substitute for preparation."