California Proposition 3 Tax Extension Holds Strong Support Ahead of Election, Poll Shows

California voters are leaning towards making a state tax on high earners permanent, with 58% of likely voters supporting Proposition 3, according to a Public Policy Institute of California survey released days before the election. The measure aims to extend tax rates on individuals earning over $371,000 annually, which were originally approved in 2012 as a temporary measure and extended in 2016.

Support for Proposition 3 has remained consistent, with a September PPIC survey showing the same 58% approval rating. The measure garners backing from most Democrats and independents, while a majority of Republicans oppose it. Support is particularly strong among lower-income voters, those aged 18-34, and renters.

The California Teachers Association has been a major proponent of the measure, contributing $58.3 million to the "Yes on 3" campaign, representing 87% of the campaign's funding. The union argues that failure to pass Proposition 3 would result in an immediate 15% cut to funding for public schools and community colleges, potentially leading to job losses for one in six educators. They emphasize that the proposition does not introduce new taxes but extends existing ones on couples earning over $740,000.

Opponents, such as the California Taxpayers Association, acknowledge being outspent. David Kline, vice president of communications and research at the association, described the fight as an "uphill battle" and voiced concerns that the measure would increase the cost of living in the state. He also noted that Proposition 3 would embed a tax increase in the state constitution five years in advance, set to take effect in 2031, a time when California's financial landscape could be significantly different.

"Voters should leave their options open and monitor how their existing tax dollars are being spent, not rush into a premature tax increase that makes our state less competitive," Kline stated. He argued that the original tax was presented as temporary to address a fiscal emergency, which he believes is now over, citing increased state revenue and record school spending.

The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association also urged a no vote, asserting that the taxes, initially framed as temporary for schools, should not become a mechanism for permanent tax hikes. The association pointed out that California already has the highest income tax rates in the nation.

Sonja Shaw, a Republican candidate for superintendent of public instruction, echoed concerns about the cost of living. "Now is not the time to raise taxes. We need actual accountability and better spending discipline, not a deeper slush fund for Sacramento insiders," she said.

Election Day is November 3, with a significant number of mail-in ballots already being processed.