California Poll Shows Republican Candidate Gaining Traction, Incumbent Governor Weakening

Republican candidate Steve Hilton is performing better than anticipated in California, according to a statewide poll of 800 likely voters conducted by The California Post from October 17 to 20. Hilton has narrowed the gap with Democratic opponent Xavier Becerra to 16 points, with Becerra leading 55.0% to 39.3%. This represents a closer contest than the previous RealClearPolitics average, which showed Becerra with a 23.2% lead.

Hilton's personal favorability rating stands at 39.0%, with 42.5% unfavorable, a slightly better standing than the state Republican Party's 37.1% favorable and 59.0% unfavorable rating. Despite Hilton's gains, Becerra remains in the lead. The poll also revealed a significant dissatisfaction with the current state of California, with only 30.1% of voters believing the state is on the right track, while 56.2% disagree. Additionally, 44% of respondents have considered leaving the state.

Governor Gavin Newsom's job approval rating is also underwater, with 47.2% of voters approving and 50.4% disapproving. The poll suggests Newsom's focus on potential presidential ambitions and travel to early primary states may be contributing to his low approval in California. Among Democratic voters surveyed, Newsom is not the preferred presidential candidate, ranking third behind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (18.4%) and Pete Buttigieg (16.7%). Former Vice President Kamala Harris also polled poorly among California Democrats, coming in fifth with 7.1% support.

The poll also examined two prominent statewide propositions. Proposition 39, which would require identification or a PIN to vote, is narrowly trailing with 45.6% support versus 47.8% opposition. Proposition 40, a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on the state's wealthiest individuals, faces stronger opposition, with 52.6% of likely voters against it and 34.5% in favor. The poll suggests that earlier public support for Proposition 40 may have waned, potentially due to concerns about the tax being retroactive and its impact on wealthy residents leaving the state.

The California Post poll indicates that while partisan loyalties persist, there is a segment of the electorate that remains independent. This independence was previously demonstrated in voters' rejection of affirmative action in 2020 and their support for Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a two-to-one margin in the same year. The results suggest that voters may opt for the status quo despite a desire for change, with Hilton's campaign making the race more competitive than initially expected but potentially not enough to secure victory in November.