California Governor's Race Tightens as Becerra Leads Hilton Amid Voter Dissatisfaction

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra has opened a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race for California governor, according to a new poll by McLaughlin & Associates for The California Post. Becerra holds a 15.7-point advantage, 55% to 39.3%, with 4.9% undecided.

This outcome occurs despite a significant portion of California voters expressing dissatisfaction with the state's trajectory. The poll found that 56.2% of voters believe California, which has been under Democratic control since 2011, is heading in the wrong direction. Only 30.1% of the 800 surveyed voters between October 17-20 believe the state is on the right track. Furthermore, 44% of voters have seriously considered leaving the Golden State in the past four years.

Despite this widespread frustration, voters appear poised to keep Democrats in power. Political analyst Dan Schnur noted that while California voters are as frustrated as those in other states, they do not perceive Republicans as a viable alternative. "In most places, angry voters turn to the alternative," Schnur told The Post. "Here in California, voters simply don’t see an alternative, so they grudgingly stick with what they’ve got."

Becerra, former California Attorney General and current Health Secretary in the Biden administration, seems to have successfully distanced himself from the state's current issues, presenting himself as a "fresh start" to voters, according to pollster John McLaughlin.

However, this satisfaction is not universal. Fifty-two percent of Democrats and 54% of Becerra supporters believe the state is moving in the right direction. For Hilton, a former Fox News host, the poll indicates a challenging path ahead. The survey revealed Democrats make up 47% of registered voters in the state, Republicans 29%, and independents or other parties 24%.

Hilton garners 90% of Republican support and is narrowly trailing Becerra among independents, 46% to 44%. Becerra, meanwhile, dominates among Democrats with 89% support. McLaughlin highlighted that Hilton would need substantial support from independents and a significant portion of Democratic voters to overcome Becerra's lead.

Interestingly, both candidates have similar favorability ratings. Becerra's ratings are 42% favorable and 42% unfavorable, while Hilton's are 39% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Schnur suggested Becerra's lead is primarily driven by party identification rather than personal favorability.

The Republican Party itself faces a negative perception in California, with 59% of voters viewing it unfavorably, including 50% with a "very unfavorable" opinion. The Democratic Party fares slightly better but remains divisive, with 49% favorable and 47.9% unfavorable ratings.

Affordability is the primary concern for California voters, with nearly 80% citing at least one economic issue as a top priority for the next governor. Cost of living and inflation were named by 44.9%, followed by government budgets, taxes, and spending (24.1%), and housing costs (21.7%). This financial pressure is driving a significant number of Californians, across party lines, to consider leaving the state. Fifty-six percent of independents and 21% of Democrats have contemplated moving, with the figure reaching 47% among Hispanic voters.

McLaughlin described these findings as a dramatic shift from previous eras when California attracted a constant influx of new residents. The dissatisfaction is even more pronounced in Los Angeles, where a separate poll indicated 66.2% of city voters believe the city is headed in the wrong direction and Mayor Karen Bass faces a 71.7% disapproval rating. Homelessness is a more pressing issue in Los Angeles, cited by 47.3% of voters as a top concern, compared to 16.1% statewide. Despite the heightened dissatisfaction in Los Angeles, the percentage of voters considering leaving the state remains similar to the statewide average, at 42%.