Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra's lead over Republican challenger Steve Hilton has narrowed to eight points, according to a new poll, with Becerra falling below 50% support among likely voters just over two months before the November election.

The poll, conducted by David Wolfson, a faculty member in Columbia University's Political Analytics graduate program, shows Becerra leading Hilton 49.2% to 41%, with 9.8% undecided. This represents a substantial shift from a previous Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll released earlier in August, which showed Becerra with an 18-point advantage.

This latest survey of 912 California registered voters, conducted between August 14 and 16, found Becerra's support at 49.2%, marking the first time he has dipped below the majority threshold in general-election polling. The poll has a 3.3-point margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level.

Steve Hilton's campaign pointed to the poll results as evidence of growing voter dissatisfaction with Becerra. "Xavier Becerra’s support is collapsing as more and more Californians learn about his horrific record as HHS Secretary, sending thousands of Latino kids into the clutches of child sex and labor traffickers," Hilton stated, adding that Becerra is "running away from the press, running away from debates." The Becerra campaign did not respond to requests for comment on the poll.

Hilton's 41% showing is notable given that Republicans constitute 31.6% of the likely voter electorate in the Wolfson survey. The poll also indicated more voters view Hilton favorably (25.2%) than Becerra (11.5%).

Becerra's personal ratings in the survey were weaker, with 37.2% viewing him favorably and 49.8% unfavorably, resulting in a net negative rating of 12.6 points. Conversely, Hilton's favorability ratings were closer to even, with 41.5% favorable and 44.6% unfavorable.

Nearly one-third of the electorate, 32.9%, remained undecided or not firmly committed to their current choice. Among voters who had picked a candidate, only 74.5% stated they would definitely vote for that person.

Previous polling had suggested a more comfortable lead for Becerra. An IGS survey in May showed him ahead of Hilton 52% to 31%. A June University of California, Irvine poll also found Hilton narrowly leading Becerra 47% to 44% among Orange County voters, a key swing region.

The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with mail-in ballots to be sent out in October.