California Billionaire Tax Faces Steep Challenge in New Poll Ahead of Election

California voters remain closely divided on Proposition 40, a proposed wealth tax on billionaires, with a new poll indicating 46% of likely voters support the measure and 43% oppose it. The proposition, which aims to raise up to $100 billion by imposing a one-time 5% tax on state residents with assets exceeding $1 billion at the start of 2026, faces a critical juncture with the election less than two weeks away and approximately 10% of likely voters still undecided.

Opponents of the billionaire tax have mounted a substantial financial campaign, raising over $300 million to fight Proposition 40 and support related measures, Propositions 41 and 42, which are designed to create barriers against wealth taxes. If Proposition 42 receives more votes than Proposition 40 and both pass, it would override the billionaire tax.

Google co-founder Sergey Brin has reportedly contributed more than $100 million to the opposition effort. In contrast, the union supporting the tax, Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, has raised and spent approximately $40 million.

Allegations of misconduct against the union's president, Dave Regan, have also surfaced. He has been accused of attempting to pressure labor leaders to endorse the measure and of threatening and intimidating women within the union. A labor investigation substantiated some allegations, including an account of physical assault. Regan and the union have denied wrongdoing, characterizing the accusations as politically motivated attacks.

Despite the financial disparity and controversy, proponents of Proposition 40 argue the poll shows positive signs. Suzanne Jimenez, chief of staff for SEIU-UHW, stated that the measure is "winning" and that undecided voters are likely to break in favor of the tax. She contends that voters prioritize funding for healthcare services over additional benefits for billionaires.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom and his likely successor, Xavier Becerra, have both opposed the proposed wealth tax, arguing such measures should be implemented at the national level. A source within the anti-Proposition 40 campaign suggested that internal polling indicates the measure faces even greater challenges due to anticipated low voter turnout and voter disconnect.

The poll revealed demographic divides in support for the tax. Younger voters, aged 18-29 and 30-44, showed stronger support at 64% and 62% respectively, while voters aged 65 and older supported it at only 28%. Women favored the measure 49% to 39%, while men leaned against it, with 47% opposed and 43% in favor.

Concerns about the permanence of the tax were prevalent, with two-thirds of registered voters expressing doubt that the one-time tax would remain so. Additionally, 56% found the prospect of the tax expanding beyond billionaires a persuasive reason to vote against it.

However, a majority of voters were convinced that billionaires could afford to contribute more without impacting other Californians' taxes (58%), and that the promise of funding public services was persuasive (57%). The argument that a wealth tax could lead to an exodus of billionaires from the state was less convincing, with only 44% finding it a compelling argument against the tax.

The poll was conducted online from October 9-14 by the Citrin Center at UC Berkeley and Politico, surveying 1,149 registered voters, including 909 likely voters. Mail-in ballots have been distributed, with the election concluding on November 3.