Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is leading a hypothetical 2028 Democratic presidential primary poll conducted in Michigan, according to a survey from The Public Sentiment Institute. The poll, conducted between July 25 and July 29 among 762 likely Michigan voters, shows Buttigieg with 24.2% support.
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff followed in the survey with 13.9% of the vote, and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was third with 10.7%. California Gov. Gavin Newsom placed fourth with 10% support, narrowly behind Ocasio-Cortez, while former Vice President Kamala Harris trailed with 5.1%.
These results differ from national polling trends where Harris and Newsom have frequently held the top positions. A national Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll released in June showed Harris leading with 27% support, followed by Newsom at 14%. Buttigieg was third in that poll with 11%, and Ocasio-Cortez had 8%. Both Harris and Newsom have seen declines in national support since earlier surveys, with Harris falling from 33% in October and Newsom dropping from 21% in the same period.
Another national survey by Emerson College Polling in May indicated Newsom leading with 16% support, while Harris garnered 10%. That poll also showed Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro reaching double digits and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 9%, suggesting a widening field of potential contenders.
Despite their lower showing in the Michigan poll, betting markets continue to favor Newsom. Prediction market Polymarket, as of Sunday, gave Newsom the highest odds of winning the Democratic nomination at 19%, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 15% and Ossoff at 14%. Harris was at 9%. Kalshi’s market showed similar figures, with Newsom at 18%, Ossoff at 15%, Ocasio-Cortez at 14%, and Harris at 9.5%.
Several potential candidates have commented on the speculation surrounding a 2028 presidential bid. Harris has indicated she is considering another run, stating in April, “I might. I am thinking about it,” and emphasizing her experience in the White House. Newsom acknowledged last year that a presidential campaign was a possibility, telling The Wall Street Journal in June 2025, “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
Ocasio-Cortez has largely downplayed presidential ambitions, focusing instead on policy goals. "My ambition is to change this country," she said, emphasizing that lasting policy achievements are more significant than individual political careers. Ossoff has directly stated he has no plans to run for president in 2028, telling CNN he is "laser-focused" on his reelection bid this year.
The Michigan survey also included Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker with 3.8% support and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro with 3.6%. More than one-fifth of voters, 21.7%, remained undecided, indicating the Democratic field is still unsettled more than two years before the election.