Prime Minister Andy Burnham's proposed overhaul of the social care system may cost an additional £21 billion more than projected, according to an analysis of the policy.
Burnham has committed to using his political influence to reform what he describes as a "broken" system and recently outlined preliminary plans for a National Care Service. He has acknowledged that implementing these changes will necessitate "difficult decisions," leading to concerns about potential tax increases.
The analysis, by The Mail on Sunday, suggests that any necessary tax rises could be substantial. The proposed new system is reportedly intended to mirror the model in Scotland, where health and social services are integrated at a cost of approximately £18 billion.
Experts have noted that Burnham's plan may not account for potential shifts in volunteer care provision, citing the Scottish experience where the percentage of unpaid volunteer carers has dropped from 26% to 18%. If a similar decline were to occur across England and Wales, where there are four million volunteer carers, it could create a shortfall of £21 billion.
Costing has been a significant topic for Burnham since he assumed the role of Prime Minister two weeks prior to the report. The Mail on Sunday previously reported that his administration had committed to £96 billion in policy pledges without detailing their funding mechanisms.
Burnham has consistently declined to rule out tax increases, having previously stated that Britain is "under taxed" and might require additional revenue to support his agenda.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride commented on the situation, stating, "Like so many of Andy Burnham's shifting plans, he has not done the hard work to figure out the detail before making an announcement. The key question here is, 'Who is paying?'"
Maxwell Marlow, from the Adam Smith Institute, expressed similar reservations, adding, "The Prime Minister's social care plan is littered with pitfalls. If he chooses to copy the Scottish model, he may encounter a mass exodus, creating a significant black hole."
Calls for Burnham's policy to foster more paid employment in the care sector have also emerged. Emily Holzhausen, of Carers UK, highlighted that "There are 4.7 million unpaid carers in England... We want unpaid carers' futures to be at the heart of this conversation."
According to Carers UK, approximately 600 individuals cease their employment daily to provide unpaid care. The charity asserts that 35% of these individuals would not need to leave their jobs if a reliable social care service were in place.
During a speech at a care home in Golders Green, north London, Burnham emphasized his commitment to reforming social care, labeling the delay in addressing the issues as a "major dereliction of public duty" by past politicians. He announced plans to expedite the independent review of adult social care in England, led by Baroness Casey, aiming for its completion by the following summer, a year ahead of schedule.
Burnham has also initiated cross-party discussions on reforms with the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties. However, Kemi Badenoch was unable to attend one such meeting, with critics suggesting that the short notice indicated the talks were conducted primarily for appearance's sake.