Budget Set to Test Government's 'Politics of Trying'

The upcoming Budget will serve as a crucial test for the government's "politics of trying," a strategy focused on implementing smaller initiatives that aim to make a significant difference, moving beyond short-term wins and towards larger, long-term goals. Chancellor John Healey is set to outline the administration's tax and spending plans on October 28, with expectations that the Budget will not offer sweeping solutions to the nation's economic challenges but will instead focus on incremental changes.

This approach echoes Harold Wilson's 1974 call for "little things that mean a lot," aiming to provide direction and a sense of public support. Ministers are reportedly managing expectations, with one senior MP suggesting that "not doing a lot might be more reassuring to people than promising the earth with whose money?" This sentiment is echoed by business leaders who hope the Budget will "do no harm" rather than introduce bold, potentially disruptive, measures.

The government faces significant financial constraints, bound by manifesto promises not to alter income tax, VAT, or National Insurance. Public spending, borrowing, and taxes are already at historic highs, further complicated by rising global prices due to conflicts in the Middle East. Some public spending cuts are anticipated in the later years of the current parliament.

Despite the emphasis on caution, the Budget is expected to include measures such as increased taxes on banks, the removal of certain business regulations, particularly for small businesses, and further devolution of powers to local authorities. There are also plans to address rising energy bills. John Healey has publicly stated his desire to encourage entrepreneurship, aiming to "talk up Britain."

However, concerns exist that deferring major decisions until next year's Spending Review could be perceived as postponing difficult choices on welfare, defense, and social care. Critics argue this approach risks appearing cynical, particularly if an early general election is anticipated, or it could create a "car crash" scenario for the following year's budget. Some allies of Prime Minister Andy Burnham have voiced apprehension about a "mañana budgets" that delay addressing urgent issues.

Burnham's administration has seen some success in its "politics of trying," with initiatives like cracking down on disruptive behavior on public transport and addressing parking charges. These smaller actions, coupled with a more visible and approachable style from ministers, have reportedly improved the mood within the governing party and are reflected positively in recent polling.

In parallel to these immediate fiscal concerns, a long-term vision for hosting major sporting events, such as a "Northern Games" in 2040, has been proposed. This idea, backed by £7 million in taxpayer funding for feasibility studies, aims to generate national enthusiasm and economic development, drawing parallels to the impact of the London Olympics over a decade ago. This aligns with a broader agenda that includes increased devolution, a national care service, and greater public involvement in the economy.

The delicate balance within the party is also a key consideration. Different factions will scrutinize the Budget for measures that either support those struggling financially or bolster businesses and control spending. The effectiveness of Burnham's premiership will ultimately depend on his ability to navigate these competing priorities and address the medium-term challenges facing the country, not just the immediate or distant future.

As Chancellor Healey finalizes his plans, the Budget represents a critical juncture, signaling the start of a more defined period of governance after an initial phase of establishing political footing and boosting party morale.