Recent by-elections in the United Kingdom have revealed significant shifts in voter sentiment, with implications for both the Labour and Conservative parties. In Makerfield, Labour's Andy Burnham not only retained his seat but increased his vote share, a result described by Professor Sir John Curtice as a "remarkable personal success." This outcome defied expectations for Reform UK, which had targeted the constituency, known for its high proportion of Leave voters from the Brexit referendum.
Reform UK saw its support increase by only three points in Makerfield, falling short of the gains observed in other recent contests. The emergence of Restore Britain, a new party advocating for a more stringent stance on immigration, further complicated the landscape for Reform. Restore Britain, founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, was the only party besides Labour and Reform to retain its deposit in Makerfield, indicating a potential fragmentation of the anti-establishment vote.
In contrast to Makerfield, the Conservative party achieved a notable gain in Aberdeen South. The party successfully campaigned on a platform critical of the UK and Scottish governments' net-zero policies. This strategy resulted in a 25-point increase in their share of the vote, marking the party's first by-election gain in Scotland since 1967 and a record increase for the party in a post-war by-election.
Professor Curtice, a prominent political analyst, noted that these by-election results are likely to have a lasting impact on the political discourse in Westminster. The outcomes suggest a challenging environment for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, while also potentially intensifying scrutiny on the government's energy policies. The varying results across different constituencies highlight the complex and evolving nature of the UK's political terrain.