Britain Will Not Rejoin the European Union, Pundit Argues

A return to the European Union for Britain is not a realistic prospect, despite current public dissatisfaction with Brexit, according to a commentary by Daniel Hannan.

Hannan, an independent peer and director of the Institute of Economic Affairs, argues that while polls may show a desire to rejoin, such sentiment would likely dissipate if a referendum were actually to occur. He likens the situation to Iceland, where accession talks were halted after a public vote, allowing the country to focus on domestic issues.

In Britain, figures like Andy Burnham, described as the "Euro-dream" proponent, are keeping the idea of rejoining the single market or customs union alive. Hannan suggests that while such options might appear in manifestos, they would face significant obstacles. He posits that a new referendum campaign would dredge up negative aspects of the EU, including economic instability in member states, immigration challenges, and corruption scandals, such as the 2022 banknotes scandal involving MEPs.

The potential for rejoining the EU could also impede Britain's progress in other areas. Hannan notes that Britain's advancements in AI development could be stifled by EU regulations. Similarly, divergence in sectors like agriculture, gene editing, and financial services would be reversed. Rejoining would also necessitate significant budget contributions and potentially force Britain to abandon trade deals with countries like Australia, India, and Japan, thereby impacting its participation in growing trade blocs like the CPTPP.

Hannan suggests that while improved bilateral relations with the EU are possible, focusing on issues such as mutual recognition of qualifications or facilitated customs procedures, the broader prospect of re-entry, or even joining the customs union, would prevent the EU from engaging in such beneficial discussions. He criticizes the focus on the customs union, arguing it sacrifices trade deals without necessarily removing customs checks.

Ultimately, Hannan concludes that the UK's future opportunities lie beyond the EU, particularly in growing markets across the oceans. He believes that Britain will only be able to seize these opportunities once it ceases to be preoccupied with its relationship with the EU, which he describes as a "a 1950s solution to a 1930s problem."