Brazilians are set to decide on Sunday whether to grant leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a fourth presidential term or pivot to the far right by electing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, an ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Lula, 80, previously served as Brazil's president from 2003 to 2010 and again since 2023. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, aims to continue his family's political legacy while his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a sentence for attempting a coup.
In the first round of voting, Bolsonaro narrowly surpassed Lula by over 2.2 million votes, securing 47% of the ballots compared to Lula's 45%. Neither candidate achieved the outright majority needed to win, necessitating the runoff election. Current polls indicate the race remains extremely close.
Lula, a former union worker, first gained prominence during his initial terms when Brazil's economy experienced growth, partly due to a commodities boom and direct financial assistance programs that lifted millions out of poverty. His presidency was later marked by corruption convictions, which were subsequently annulled, allowing him to run for and win a third term in 2022.
Despite once being lauded as "the world's most popular politician," Lula's approval ratings have seen a decline this term amid voter concerns about rising living costs and crime. His administration has responded by increasing payments through the flagship Bolsa Família program by 15%, promising to leverage revenue from the country's natural resources, cutting fuel taxes, and proposing measures to boost student welfare payments. Additionally, Brazil's Senate recently approved a measure supported by Lula's administration to reduce the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without a salary reduction.
Flávio Bolsonaro began his political career as Rio de Janeiro's youngest elected state lawmaker at age 21. With his father ineligible to run due to his ongoing legal issues, the younger Bolsonaro has largely adopted his father's conservative platform while attempting to appeal to centrist voters with a more moderated communication style.
His campaign has emphasized hard-line security policies, including proposals to construct "megaprisons" similar to those in El Salvador, designate transnational gangs as terrorist organizations, and try defendants as young as 16 as adults. These policies have shown popularity in opinion polls.
Brazil's role in global climate efforts, particularly its protection of the Amazon rainforest, has been a significant point of discussion. Deforestation reached record levels during Jair Bolsonaro's presidency, and his son has expressed skepticism about human-caused climate change, pledging only to halt illegal deforestation.
Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign has also been affected by an investigation into allegations of corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion linked to millions of dollars he allegedly received from a banker for a film about his father.
Lula has publicly warned against foreign interference in Brazil's elections, particularly from the United States, making national sovereignty a central campaign theme. During the previous administration, the U.S. imposed tariffs on Brazilian goods and designated Brazil's major drug-trafficking organizations as foreign terrorist groups, actions opposed by Lula's government.
A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would align Brazil with other Latin American nations that have recently elected governments considered friendly to Trump.
Brazil's election system includes electronic voting machines, with results typically available within hours of polls closing. Voting is mandatory for nearly 160 million eligible Brazilians, though a significant portion did not vote in the first round and may face a small fine.