Brazil's Shifting Working Class Poses Challenge to President Lula's Re-election Bid

The transformation of Brazil's working class, driven by deindustrialization and the rise of the gig economy, is presenting a significant challenge to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election campaign. In former industrial hubs like Osasco, which has rebranded itself as São Paulo's "Silicon Valley," traditional factory jobs have been replaced by service sector and tech roles. This shift has altered the political landscape, with some of Lula's traditional base expressing a desire for change.

Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers' union leader in Osasco, observes that the working class profile has changed dramatically. "The profile of the working class changed. They are no longer predominantly industrial workers, they are service workers," he stated. "Metal, chemical, textile factories disappeared. And five malls were built." This evolution has left traditional union movements struggling to adapt to what he describes as the "Middle Ages" compared to modern worker needs.

Many voters are drawn to challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, not necessarily for specific policy proposals, but for a general sentiment of wanting something different. Frustration with the economy, crime, and political corruption are frequently cited reasons. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer in Osasco, switched her vote to Bolsonaro after supporting Lula in 2022, seeking "hope of change, that we can have a different Brazil."

This electoral dynamic is further complicated by a surge in abstentions, with 33 million people not voting in the first round—the highest rate since 1998. While some voters abstained due to disillusionment, others, like Bonfim, actively sought an alternative to Lula.

A New Working Class

For decades, Lula has been lauded as a working-class hero for championing workers' rights and implementing social welfare programs that lifted millions out of poverty. However, the modern Brazilian workforce increasingly consists of gig economy participants—Uber drivers, food delivery personnel, and small business owners operating from market stalls or offering services from home. This "Uber-isation," as Almazan calls it, has created a demand for greater freedom and flexibility, which the traditional model of collective action and welfare may not fully address.

Richard Lapper, a biographer of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, notes that these economic shifts, exacerbated by globalization, have been particularly sharp in Brazil due to its late industrialization and early deindustrialization. He suggests Lula is a "victim of his own success," as improved living standards have not always translated into a feeling of prosperity, especially with rising prices, household debt, and high interest rates.

Robson, a municipal civil servant originally from Lula's home state of Pernambuco, expressed concern over the country's economic management under Lula, citing high public spending and tax burdens. "Now you have to make choices: pay an instalment for your car, or put food on the table," he said, reflecting a sentiment of financial strain.

Lula's Comeback Strategy

In response to the electoral challenges, Lula's campaign has focused on mobilizing voters, particularly students, through large street rallies. The campaign claims a recent rally in São Paulo drew approximately one million people, emphasizing the importance of convincing those who abstained in the first round that their vote matters.

Lula, 80, has also embraced social media, positioning himself as tech-savvy with a campaign strategy that aims for viral reach. He dismisses criticisms of being past his prime by sharing videos of his active campaign schedule.

In areas like Maré, a large favela in Rio de Janeiro, abstention rates were also high, impacting Lula's support despite his victory there. For the very poor, Lula's welfare programs, such as increases to the minimum wage and access to free medicines, remain highly valued. However, concerns about security are prevalent, with some residents fearing increased police and military intervention under a Bolsonaro presidency.

The growing influence of the evangelical church, which now counts about a quarter of Brazilians among its followers, is another significant factor. These churches provide not only spiritual guidance but also social support, and their conservative leaders are influential political figures. Pastor Silas Malafaia, a prominent evangelical leader, has expressed support for Bolsonaro, aligning with the church's conservative values on family, gender ideology, and abortion.

Ultimately, for many Brazilians, the first round of the election appeared to be more a rejection of President Lula than a full endorsement of his rival. The ultimate outcome may depend on whether Lula can convince voters that he can still offer a compelling vision for Brazil's future, adapting to the evolving needs of its working class.