Brazil's Election Hinges on Undecided and Abstaining Voters

Millions of Brazilians remain undecided or have abstained from voting, presenting a critical challenge for both President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his challenger, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, as they head into the second round of the presidential election on October 25.

Neither candidate achieved the necessary majority in the initial round, forcing a runoff. This scenario has amplified the importance of the significant bloc of voters who did not cast a ballot or remain undecided. In the first round, over 33 million voters, representing 21% of the electorate, did not participate, the highest abstention rate since 1998. Voting is mandatory in Brazil for literate citizens aged 18 to 70, with a small fine imposed for non-participation.

"Abstention of 20% isn’t ideal," stated Kassio Nunes Marques, president of Brazil’s electoral court, after the first round. "The idea is to intensify and perfect all the available mechanisms to diminish this percentage in the second round."

Sen. Bolsonaro enters the runoff with at least two advantages. He garnered approximately 2 million more votes than Lula in the first round. Additionally, the candidates who placed third, fourth, and fifth—Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado—all align with the right wing of the political spectrum. Caiado, who secured around 2.6 million votes, has endorsed Bolsonaro, while Cury and Santos have declared they will not support either of the leading candidates.

Many voters, however, express disillusionment with both candidates. Ana Beatriz Bon Raggio, a 19-year-old theater student in Rio de Janeiro, finds herself undecided. She views the right as mixing religion and faith inappropriately, while also holding that Lula’s Workers’ Party has a history of corruption. "I’m very undecided," she said.

Bon Raggio’s distrust is informed by past legal entanglements of prominent political figures. Sen. Bolsonaro faces corruption investigations, and President Lula served 19 months in prison on corruption and money laundering charges that were later annulled. Former president Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio Bolsonaro's father, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup following his 2022 election loss to Lula.

Alexandre Moreira, a 21-year-old university student working multiple part-time jobs, cast a blank vote in the first round and remains undecided but leaning towards Lula. "But things are more expensive, and I’m feeling it," he commented, citing the increased cost of gasoline.

Political scientist Carolina Almeida de Paula of Rio de Janeiro State University noted that while polarization is often discussed, the sentiment of alienation and weariness among a larger percentage of the population is frequently overlooked. "We talk a lot about polarization in Brazil, but we forget the higher percentage of people who don’t like this fight," she said.

Datafolha, a Brazilian polling agency, predicted around 11% of voters were undecided before the first round, a significant increase compared to just 2% in the same period in 2022.

Meri Oliveira, 62, plans to abstain from voting in the runoff, viewing both leading candidates as corrupt. She criticized the incumbent president's time in prison and expressed disapproval of former president Jair Bolsonaro's conduct, including alleged misogynistic comments and his administration's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in over 700,000 deaths in Brazil.

Almeida de Paula suggested that campaigns might intensify their efforts before the second round, potentially mobilizing more voters. "We could see more mobilization ahead of the second round, which could bring many more votes. That could mean increasing votes for Bolsonaro or allowing Lula to turn the election around," she said.

Bon Raggio, the theater student, indicated that if the election were held immediately, she would likely cast a blank ballot, expressing a sentiment of dissatisfaction with both options. "Brazil’s situation is complicated; I don’t think it’s a good idea for either of them to govern," she stated, while acknowledging that her decision could still change.