Brazil's Congress Shifts Right, Potentially Altering National and Regional Agendas

Brazil's congressional elections have resulted in a significant shift to the right, with implications for the nation's judiciary, economy, human rights, and environmental policies. This conservative majority, regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is positioned to command a simple majority in the 513-seat lower house and potentially a supermajority in the Senate.

The Liberal Party, aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro, saw notable gains, adding 23 seats in the lower house and nearly doubling its Senate representation, largely at the expense of centrist parties. Lula's Workers' Party maintained a similar number of seats.

Judicial and Security Reforms

Among the top priorities for the new right-leaning Congress is the potential impeachment of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. His role in investigating former President Jair Bolsonaro's alleged coup attempt has made him a target. With the next president having the power to appoint at least three new justices, the court's composition could also see significant changes. Lawmakers also aim to limit the power of individual Supreme Court justices, who have issued impactful rulings independently, and some are proposing term limits for justices, a sentiment echoed even by some leftist lawmakers in the wake of a corruption scandal involving the court.

On public security, many elected lawmakers favor proposals aligned with Bolsonaro's hard-line stance. These include lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 and potentially implementing chemical castration for convicted rapists and pedophiles. Some are looking to emulate El Salvador's mass-incarceration model, an approach criticized by experts who argue it prioritizes punishment over addressing the root causes of crime and solving cases.

Economic and Environmental Policy Shifts

Economically, many right-wing lawmakers advocate for reduced public spending, though specific cuts remain undefined. Concerns have been raised that welfare initiatives could be targeted, echoing policies from the Jair Bolsonaro administration. Proposals also include lowering corporate taxes and reversing tax code changes slated for January. Allies of Bolsonaro contend that a new value-added tax (VAT) could stifle businesses, and they intend to reduce administrative regulations. The bloc also includes strong proponents of privatizing state-owned enterprises and supporting the agribusiness sector through expanded rural credit and flexible employment contracts.

Environmental policy is another area expected to see considerable change. A significant portion of the newly elected members are seen as hostile to environmental agendas. Plans include loosening environmental licensing requirements, weakening regulatory agencies, and offering amnesties for illegal land grabbing, with the stated aim of fostering economic activity in the Amazon. Experts warn this could lead to environmental and climate crises, especially if coupled with a denialist presidential administration. Approximately 70% of the lower house and 80% of the Senate are considered unfavorable to environmental and climate initiatives.

Social and Cultural Agendas

On the social front, lawmakers plan to counter progressive politics. Efforts will focus on restricting transgender rights, including limiting access to gender-neutral bathrooms and cutting welfare programs. They also intend to oppose gender-neutral language and promote a biological definition of womanhood. The demarcation of Indigenous lands is expected to be halted, prioritizing mining and agricultural expansion. Furthermore, affirmative action policies for university admissions and public service jobs are likely to face challenges, and faith-based agendas may seek to restrict abortion access and reshape civil liberties.