Brazil Election: Violence in Lula's Stronghold Threatens Support

Increasing violence in Brazil's Bahia state, a region where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has historically strong support, is presenting a significant challenge to his re-election campaign.

Bahia, located in northern Brazil, is a crucial stronghold for Lula. In the 2022 presidential runoff, he secured 72% of the votes in the state against his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. However, recent polling indicates Lula is performing below his previous results in Bahia, with public security cited as the primary reason.

Residents of Bahia, known as 'baianos', are experiencing escalating violence, with the state's capital, Salvador, recording nearly 53 violent deaths per 100,000 residents in 2024, making it the nation's deadliest state capital, according to the Brazilian Public Security Forum. Five of Brazil's ten most lethal cities are located in Bahia.

This surge in violence has led to tragic incidents, such as the death of 33-year-old Evilásio Santos da Silveira Júnior in Salvador. His family claims he was killed by state forces during an unprovoked raid, while police at the scene suggested he was caught in a shootout between rival drug gangs. His sister, Magnólia Nascimento, expressed a lack of confidence in police protection and hopes the next president will improve public safety.

Some voters attribute the rising violence to national crime gangs migrating to Bahia, while others criticize Lula's Workers' Party, which has governed the state since 2006, for failing to curb drug trafficking, adequately invest in education, or reduce police lethality.

Both Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of Jair Bolsonaro, have promised to address public security. Lula has proposed creating a new public security ministry and dedicating more federal resources. Senator Bolsonaro has advocated for a tough-on-crime approach, inspired by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, though he has not specifically detailed plans for Bahia.

Lula has sought to bolster his security credentials, but when asked about the crisis in Bahia, he responded, "Don’t be unfair to Bahia," and added, "No governor has solved the public security situation."

The state's news media often features graphic crime reporting, with hosts and reporters sometimes mocking human rights activists. Major criminal factions like the Red Command and Bando de Malucos, tied to the First Command of the Capital (PCC), have expanded their presence in Bahia, contributing to the violence.

Despite the security concerns, Lula's campaign is relying on the appeal of his social programs, such as the Bolsa Família initiative, which has seen increased benefits. For many, like Júnior's sister, these programs offer vital support and remain a reason to vote for Lula.

However, for some voters, like food stall owner Jane Souza, the escalating violence and economic conditions are causing hesitation. The upcoming election on October 4th, with a potential runoff on October 25th, will determine whether Lula can maintain his strong lead in Bahia amidst these growing challenges.