Brazil Election Pits Trump Ally Against Lula in High-Stakes Vote

Brazilians began voting Sunday in a presidential election pitting incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, ideological opposites who are each seen as having a shot at an outright victory. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff election scheduled for October 25.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and has positioned himself as an ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Lula, 80, is seeking his fourth nonconsecutive term as president and has focused on strengthening Brazil's ties with Beijing. Trump allies have found support in recent years in several Latin American countries, including Argentina, Colombia, and Peru.

Almost 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in this election. Bolsonaro has emphasized his ideological alliance with Trump, while Lula has been critical of Washington. Lula has previously spoken about the risks of U.S. intervention in Brazilian elections, citing actions taken by the Trump administration, such as imposing high tariffs on Brazilian exports, revoking the visa of Brazil's ambassador in Washington, and sanctioning a Supreme Court justice involved in an investigation that led to the sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro has highlighted his proximity to the White House and argued that Brazil should pursue better trade deals with the U.S., particularly concerning the rare minerals economy, in which Brazil possesses significant reserves. He has also campaigned on a promise to release his father from a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup and to bring him back into politics.

In addition to the presidential race, Brazilians are also electing 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 federal deputies for the lower house of congress, and 54 of the country's 81 senators.

Political consultants note that last-minute events or missteps by either candidate or their allies could sway undecided voters. The intense polarization in Brazil has created a situation where voters feel they have only two choices, leading to a campaign characterized more by accusations than by policy proposals.

Four years prior, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by a narrow margin. At that time, voters were discontented with the then-president's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, his challenges to democratic institutions, his criticism of the electronic voting system, and the country's economic performance amid rising inflation.

Currently, Lula faces a challenging re-election bid due to an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that has implicated the same Supreme Court justice who led the investigation into Jair Bolsonaro. Some voters have expressed fatigue with Lula, who is one of the oldest heads of state globally.

Bolsonaro's political career has been marked by several corruption allegations. He has also faced criticism from Roman Catholics concerned about potential concessions to his evangelical base.