Annie Jacobsen, author of the bestseller Nuclear War: A Scenario, has turned her attention to another potential doomsday threat in her latest book, Biological War: A Scenario. The book explores a terrifyingly plausible scenario where an accidental release from a high-containment laboratory could spiral into an uncontrollable global catastrophe.

Jacobsen’s previous work, which detailed nuclear war possibilities, led many government sources to suggest biowarfare as her next focus. Her new book adopts a similar ticking-clock format, methodically illustrating how a man-made biological disaster could unfold. While the narrative reads like dystopian fiction, it is grounded in government studies and expert concerns, including warnings from tech CEOs about artificial intelligence potentially accelerating the creation of lethal pathogens.

The Inciting Incident: A Siberian Lab Leak

The book's plot begins with an accidental explosion at the Vector laboratory, a Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) facility in Siberia. While a real-life accident occurred at this facility in 2019 without known pathogen release, Jacobsen's scenario posits that a deadly pathogen does escape. The chosen pathogen is a form of pneumonic plague, an airborne and highly dangerous bacterium listed by the CDC as a Tier 1 select agent.

In the book's initial stages, intelligence and defense departments scramble to identify the escaped agent and contain its spread. However, Jacobsen emphasizes that once a pathogen escapes a BSL-4 lab, containment is unlikely if mitigation efforts are not immediate, within the first 24 to 48 hours. This failure to mitigate leads to an unstoppable situation.

The Nature of the Threat

Pneumonic plague, the airborne form of the disease that caused the Black Death in the 14th century, poses a unique threat due to its rapid transmission. The pathogen can spread quickly from an infected individual in the lab to the general public. In Jacobsen's scenario, an infected scientist from the Vector lab, located near the Russian city of Novosibirsk, spreads the disease within the community. The pathogen’s reach expands further when international hunters, encountering a sick scientist and one providing CPR, inadvertently carry the disease to multiple continents via air travel.

Jacobsen draws on declassified information from the Soviet Cold War-era biological weapons program to detail the pathogen's enhanced dangers. Soviet scientists reportedly worked to engineer plague with two key modifications:

  • Euphoria Gene: The insertion of a gene for euphoria was intended to counteract the typical symptoms of illness, such as lethargy, which would normally lead an infected person to isolate. Instead, an infected individual might feel compelled to socialize, increasing transmission rates.
  • Antibiotic Trigger: A second modification aimed to make the pathogen resistant to medical countermeasures. When antibiotics were administered, this engineered gene would trigger encephalitis, causing brain swelling. The psychological component, according to Soviet scientists, was to instill a final thought of betrayal: "My government and Western medicine has failed me."

From Outbreak to Anarchy

Jacobsen's scenario diverges from typical fictional portrayals where governments regain control. In Biological War, the progression from outbreak to widespread anarchy takes just six days. Pentagon war gaming and pandemic planning suggest that fear of infection becomes a secondary weapon, driving societal breakdown as people anticipate death. Following this rapid descent, the President's Principals Committee must decide whether to invoke the Insurrection Act, empowering the military to take over law enforcement.

The book depicts a stark image of the president isolated in a secure location, wearing a gas mask, with only essential staff nearby—a potent symbol of the potential breakdown of governance. Survival, in Jacobsen's scenario, hinges on having protective gear like gas masks, as illustrated by the Pentagon's issuance of 1.7 million such masks to military personnel.

The History and Future of Bioweapons

Biological weapons were outlawed by the Biological Weapons Convention Treaty, signed by nations globally. However, the Soviet Union, despite signing, reportedly continued a large-scale illegal biological weapons program, a fact that came to light in 1989 when a Soviet scientist defected. The United States, under President Nixon in 1969, had unilaterally declared its own arsenal for destruction.

The 2001 anthrax attacks in the U.S., which resulted in five deaths and 22 illnesses, are cited as a significant event that spurred the growth of the biological military-industrial complex, leading to the current proliferation of BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratories worldwide. There are approximately 110 BSL-4 labs and over 3,500 BSL-3 labs globally.

Jacobsen argues that the greatest concern today is not necessarily state-sponsored terrorism or rogue nations, but accidental lab leaks. Many of these high-containment labs are located in areas with lax security, sometimes in conflict zones. Furthermore, the barriers to creating biological weapons are diminishing, especially with advancements in AI. Individuals with limited biological knowledge could potentially develop bioweapons using computational tools.

Jacobsen emphasizes that her book is based on scientific facts and extensive research, with detailed notes provided to support her narrative. She highlights the current concern expressed by AI company CEOs regarding the intersection of AI and biological threats, suggesting this is a more pressing worry than nuclear proliferation in some expert circles. Despite the grim subject matter, Jacobsen maintains an optimistic outlook, believing that widespread information empowers individuals to advocate for preventative measures before disaster strikes.