Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra holds an 18-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race for California governor, according to a poll released this week. Becerra's support among likely voters has decreased to 55% from 61% in July, while Hilton's support has edged up to 37% from 36%.
The poll, conducted Aug. 3-9 by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times among 2,310 likely voters, indicates Becerra still maintains a substantial lead with less than three months remaining before the November general election.
Becerra leads in major population centers including Los Angeles County, San Diego County, the Bay Area, and the Central Coast. Hilton is ahead in more conservative regions like the San Joaquin Valley and North Coast/Sierra, while Orange County and the Inland Empire remain closely contested. The Democrat also holds a significant advantage among independent voters, leading Hilton 58% to 30%.
Among registered voters, Becerra led 52% to 31% in a May survey. Both candidates have seen gains since then, but Becerra's standing among likely voters has slipped since a July survey, even as Hilton has gained slightly.
Becerra's personal favorability rating has improved, with 49% viewing him favorably and 43% unfavorably. Hilton's unfavorability rating stands at 50%, with 39% viewing him favorably.
Despite the narrowing gap, Hilton faces a challenge in the state, where Democrats hold a considerable advantage. "This is shaping up to be a fairly standard California general election, where Democrats enjoy a comfortable edge statewide," said Eric Schickler, a political science professor and IGS co-director. "Hilton would need to make major inroads among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups to make this a highly competitive race."
Becerra, a former US Health and Human Services secretary and California attorney general, has focused his campaign on Democratic priorities and opposition to former President Trump. Hilton, a former Fox News host, has centered his platform on tax and regulation cuts and addressing California's high cost of living. Fifty-five percent of Hilton's supporters cite his traditional Republican policies as their reason for support, while 28% are drawn to his outsider status.
The election to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom is scheduled for Nov. 3. Newsom is reportedly considering a presidential bid in 2028.