Commentator Stephen Glover argues that Prime Minister Andy Burnham should call an early general election, predicting that delaying the vote will only worsen the economic situation for the country and his party.
According to the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), household disposable income is forecast to fall by 0.6% next year, primarily due to rising energy costs. David Miles, a leading figure at the OBR, described the outlook as "pretty grim," with no indication of improvement in the years beyond 2027.
Glover suggests that Burnham's government has already taken steps to appeal to voters, citing a £100 payment to 20 million households to help with energy bills this winter, though he notes this would be quickly offset by rising energy prices in January. He posits that Burnham's assurances of serving the full term are likely to change, similar to previous statements about the UK rejoining the EU, which he now claims the government has pursued.
Recent polling indicates a lead for Labour. An Ipsos poll showed Labour at 32%, with the Conservatives at 24% and Reform UK at 20%. Election Maps UK projections based on these figures suggest Labour could achieve a narrow majority of four seats, with potential support from 66 Liberal Democrat MPs. However, Glover points to the declining support for Reform UK, partly due to financial scandals, and modest gains by the Conservatives, while Labour makes significant headway. He speculates that advisors would urge Burnham to go to the polls soon, before economic conditions deteriorate further.
Glover expresses concern that a Labour government, potentially with Liberal Democrat backing, could be the most left-wing in history, exacerbated by incompetence. He anticipates increased income tax and national insurance for ordinary workers, along with higher taxes on capital gains and property. A wealth tax is also predicted, potentially leading to capital flight and detriment to the British economy. He doubts that rising welfare costs would be curtailed, citing Labour's perceived addiction to higher spending in this area.
Furthermore, Glover predicts a continuation of pro-trade union laws, no change in the approach to Channel crossings, and a supercharged net-zero policy that would increase energy costs for ordinary citizens. He also suggests a push to rejoin the European Union or its Single Market, possibly without a referendum.
He argues that the only way to avoid this "hellish landscape" is for the political Right to unite. However, he views the decline of Reform UK and internal divisions as major obstacles. Glover suggests that a pre-election pact between the Conservatives and Reform UK is necessary given their similar policies, but believes that "vanity, tribal loyalties and blind devotion to party" will prevent such an alliance. He concludes that Burnham will likely call an election next year, and fears that the divisions on the Right will enable Labour to win, leading to a "very dark age."