Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has declared war on hard-right populists, characterizing their politics as 'dangerous, divisive and dishonest.' This strong stance, articulated at the Queensland Labor conference, comes in the wake of the One Nation party's significant gains in a recent Newspoll, where it surpassed both major parties.
One Nation now holds 30 percent of the primary vote, with Labor at 29 percent and the Coalition at a low of 19 percent. This surge follows a historic by-election victory for One Nation in a formerly safe Labor seat in Western Australia. Political analysts suggest that such results indicate widespread voter dissatisfaction with the status quo.
Albanese's rhetoric has drawn comparisons to past political missteps, such as Hillary Clinton's labeling of Donald Trump supporters as a 'basket of deplorables.' The argument presented is that such language risks alienating millions of voters who feel the political establishment does not understand or care about their concerns. Parties achieving substantial support, it is argued, do so because a considerable number of voters have reached this conclusion, rather than solely through misinformation.
Personal approval ratings further complicate the political landscape. Albanese's net approval stands at minus 21, while Coalition frontbencher Angus Taylor's is minus 17. In contrast, Pauline Hanson, the leader of One Nation, has seen her personal approval rating improve to minus one. While Albanese still leads Hanson in a direct preferred leader contest, the three-way polling suggests Hanson is emerging as a significant opposition figure.
Albanese's government has also faced criticism for perceived policy shifts, including changes to tax cuts and superannuation rules, and breaking promises on negative gearing and capital gains taxes. Critics argue that accusing others of misinformation is less effective when the government itself is perceived to have broken trust with voters.
The Coalition's strategy appears to rely on the hope that One Nation will falter, a tactic described as a dream rather than a strategy, as attempting to emulate Hanson is seen as ineffective when voters prefer the original. Labor's challenge lies in the potential for a fractured conservative vote to save its majority, while simultaneously facing the prospect of One Nation encroaching on its own suburban seats, which could create unease within the party's backbench as the next election approaches.
The current political climate, with the Coalition's primary support at 19 percent and Albanese's electoral coalition showing signs of fracturing, raises questions about the Prime Minister's approach. The analysis suggests that attempting to win by framing a third of the country as the opposition could inadvertently benefit One Nation.