Australia 'Sleepwalking' Towards Disaster Amid Taiwan War Threat, Ex-PM Warns

Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has issued a stark warning, asserting that the nation is "sleepwalking through lotus land" and risks significant disaster if it fails to confront the escalating threat of a potential war in the Pacific involving China.

Abbott's remarks, prompted by comments from former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, emphasize the gravity of the geopolitical situation surrounding Taiwan. Rudd previously suggested there is a one-in-three chance of Chinese President Xi Jinping initiating military action against Taiwan as early as 2028, coinciding with the island's presidential elections. Such a move could be justified under China's 2005 anti-secession law if Taiwan's current leadership, perceived as defiant by Beijing, is re-elected.

"The alarm needs to be sounded now - repeatedly and vigorously," Abbott stated in a recent newsletter, underscoring the potential ripple effects of a China-Taiwan conflict on Australia. He posited that any military engagement could lead to the immediate cessation of all exports to and imports from China, severely impacting Australia's export income and fuel supplies. Furthermore, Abbott cautioned of the possibility of missile strikes on Australia itself, against which the nation currently possesses minimal air defenses.

"And that's before we're called upon to join any American action in defence of Taiwan which could readily see combat losses on a scale unseen since World War Two," Abbott added.

He attributed Australia's perceived lack of preparedness to "successive governments," arguing that despite repeated warnings, minimal serious steps have been taken to address the threat. Abbott criticized the focus on AUKUS submarines, suggesting they will arrive long after the period of peak danger, while economic vulnerabilities to Chinese supply chains have increased. He also expressed concern over a perceived decline in national will, citing opinion polls suggesting a significant portion of young Australians do not believe the country is worth defending.

Abbott refuted the notion that economic logic alone prevents conflict, pointing to ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf, as well as the "grey zone war" against Taiwan, as evidence that such rational calculations do not always dictate national actions. He referenced an upcoming book, "Australia at the Crossroads," by former military officers Chris Mills and Stephen Hayes, which outlines potential escalations that could draw the US and China into direct conflict over Taiwan.

Even without direct military intervention from the US, Abbott warned that attempts to coerce Taiwan would inevitably lead to economic sanctions and disruptions to sea and air transport, massively impacting Australian life. He stressed that a country without a credible plan for such a disaster is fundamentally unprepared.

Abbott advocated for a more robust conversation on national readiness, suggesting it should have begun years ago. He proposed strengthening military capabilities, including weapons stockpiling, reducing dependence on Chinese supply chains, and engaging citizens in a discussion about their willingness to defend Australia.

His sentiments echo those of Kevin Rudd, who has called for a "radical change" in the national mindset. Rudd has described the risk of conflict as an "increased possibility," estimating it at approximately one in three.

The dispute between China and Taiwan stems from the Chinese Civil War, which concluded in 1949 with the Nationalist forces retreating to Taiwan, while the mainland came under Communist Party rule. Since then, the two entities have been governed separately.