Net overseas migration in Australia has dropped by more than 250,000 people since its peak in September 2023, according to an analysis by the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA). The figures show a decrease from a record high of 555,800 to 301,000, representing a decline of approximately 45 percent.
The report, titled 'The State of Migration in Australia,' also points to the treasury's budget forecast for the 2026/2027 financial year, which projects net overseas migration to fall further to 225,000 by 2027/28. These figures emerge amidst ongoing national discussions about migration levels, exacerbated by a housing crisis and strain on existing infrastructure.
CEDA chief executive Melinda Cilento stated that the public debate has not kept pace with the available data. "We've seen political parties place cuts to migration at the centre of their platforms, framing high intake as a driver of housing unaffordability and infrastructure strain," Cilento said. "But the data shows migration is already falling driven by lower arrivals and as departures return to more normal levels, net overseas migration will drop further."
Cilento elaborated that the current trend indicates fewer people are arriving in Australia, while those who do arrive are staying for longer durations. This includes international students and temporary skilled workers. The report emphasizes the continued critical role of migrants in Australia's workforce, noting that approximately one in three workers in sectors such as healthcare, logistics, professional services, and manufacturing were born overseas.
The aged care sector, for example, is estimated to require an additional 400,000 workers by 2050, a demand that cannot be met solely by the domestic workforce. The report also highlights that the poor recognition of overseas qualifications is costing the Australian economy around $4 billion annually in lost wages.
CEDA argues that migrants generally arrive during their prime working years, which helps to mitigate the pressures of an aging population and contributes more in taxes than they utilize in services. Cilento suggested that addressing housing affordability challenges should focus on sustainable solutions rather than solely on reducing migration numbers. "The smarter response is faster skills recognition, streamlined skilled pathways, and continued investment in housing and infrastructure to rebuild public confidence," she said.
CEDA advocates for a "transparent, well-managed, evidence-based skilled migration system." This includes streamlined visa pathways, accelerated skills recognition processes, and enhanced investment in planning and infrastructure. The organization stressed the importance of establishing a sustainable migration number informed by evidence, without compromising the essential skills and workforce that businesses and vital services depend upon.