Australia is facing a significant "window of vulnerability" to attack for at least the next decade, according to a former top security official, prompting the launch of a comprehensive review into the nation's civil defense preparedness.
Mike Pezzullo, former Secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, stated that the extended timeline for the arrival of key defense capabilities, such as those under the AUKUS agreement, leaves Australia exposed.
"All of our defence programs are geared to the building of quite a significant force that arrives from the 2030s onwards, which means for a ten-year window where the kinds of capabilities that will help protect us simply won't be around," Pezzullo said. He warned that a regional conflict, particularly between China and the United States, could have disastrous consequences for Australia, with some predictions placing such a conflict as soon as 18 months away.
This warning coincides with the establishment of a new parliamentary committee tasked with examining Australia's civil defense readiness, a review not undertaken in earnest since World War II. The committee's mandate includes assessing the continuity of essential goods and services, such as fuel, medicine, and food supplies, during a prolonged conflict.
"It is simply a prudent means by which we think about the way in which our civilian economy, our private economy, would interact with the defence force in the event of any contingency," said Defence Minister Richard Marles, emphasizing the need to align civilian and military responses.
Pezzullo drew parallels between the potential impact of a prolonged conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic, but underscored the unique challenges of warfare. "Unlike the pandemic that can be subject to a certain degree of control …. war presents a different challenge altogether because your adversary has a consciousness, a will and an ability to hurt you and anticipate how you might react and be ready to hurt you again," he explained.
The geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan are a significant factor in the current security concerns. China considers Taiwan a renegade province and has not ruled out military force to achieve "re-unification." An escalation involving Taiwan could draw the United States into direct conflict with China, given the island's strategic importance in the Pacific.
Australia's involvement could be indirect but significant. With U.S. forces stationed in Australia, the country could become a target if American bases are involved in a conflict. Potential threats include the mining of ports, missile strikes on airbases, or the cutting of internet cables, blurring the lines between military and civil defense.
Pezzullo expressed cautious optimism that a full-blown conflict between the U.S. and China might be avoided, suggesting that flashpoints could be more akin to the Cold War's Cuban Missile Crisis. However, he acknowledged the inherent risks of escalation.
Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has also raised concerns about the AUKUS agreement, particularly regarding the timely delivery of nuclear submarines. Submissions to a non-parliamentary inquiry indicate that Australia risks a period of "zero submarine capability" if the procured submarines are not delivered as planned.
In addition to the AUKUS submarines, which are expected to bolster capabilities in the 2040s and beyond, Pezzullo suggested an immediate need for more drones, emphasizing rapid production and wide distribution for oceanic defense.
Mike Pezzullo warns Australia is opening a 'window of vulnerability' for at least the next ten years.
Australia has geared its defence planning around American-built nuclear submarines procured under the AUKUS agreement - but before they arrive, Australia is extra vulnerable to attack. 
