Atlantic Hurricane Season Stays Quiet Amidst Strong El Niño

The Atlantic hurricane season has reached a historic point, with no hurricanes forming in September for the first time in more than three decades. This unusual lull continues as the season nears its end, raising the possibility that 2026 could be the only year on record in the satellite era without any Atlantic hurricanes.

The primary driver behind this quiet season is a strong El Niño, a natural warming phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean. While El Niño typically suppresses activity in the Atlantic, it tends to foster a highly active season in the eastern North Pacific.

Forecasters had anticipated a less active Atlantic season due to El Niño. In May, the US National Hurricane Center predicted eight to 14 named storms, with three to six expected to become hurricanes, and one to three becoming major hurricanes. September, usually the peak of hurricane activity, has seen no such formations this year, marking the latest date on record since the 1960s without a hurricane in the North Atlantic.

El Niño disrupts global weather patterns by altering wind patterns. Over the Atlantic, increased upper-level winds lead to greater wind shear, which is a rapid change in wind speed and direction with height. This increased wind shear tears apart thunderstorms, hindering their development into tropical storms or hurricanes.

Conversely, the Pacific Ocean becomes more active during El Niño. Higher sea surface temperatures in the Pacific provide storms with more energy, while concurrent shifts in wind patterns create more favorable conditions for storm development. This year, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific have broken previous records, surpassing those set during the strong El Niño of 2015.

The eastern North Pacific basin has experienced significant activity, with 17 named storms so far, including nine hurricanes, seven of which were major. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of storm intensity and duration, indicates that the Pacific season is currently about two and a half times more active than normal.

Forecasters expect El Niño to continue strengthening, with its peak predicted for November or December. The ongoing El Niño's influence is thus expected to persist through the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially concludes on November 30.