Arab Parties Could Be Kingmakers in Israeli Election Amidst Rising Tensions

In Israel's upcoming general election, Arab parties are poised to potentially hold a critical balance of power, a situation underscored by a concerted push among Arab Israelis to unseat the current right-wing government. Turnout among Arab Israelis, who constitute approximately 20% of the population, has historically been lower due to disaffection, but this election sees a significant effort to mobilize voters.

Students in Nazareth are actively campaigning, distributing leaflets that urge citizens to vote for Arab lists. "I see it as our duty to bring down this extremist government. They treat us as second-class," stated Arkan Badran, a 23-year-old involved in the campaign. "I call on all young men and women to vote for Arab lists, which represent us, because this is our future."

Recent opinion polls suggest that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposing "Change Bloc," led by Gadi Eisenkot, is likely to secure a parliamentary majority. This deadlock could necessitate a coalition agreement involving Arab parties, a prospect complicated by existing political dynamics and a rise in anti-Arab sentiment.

The political landscape has been significantly altered by the October 7th Hamas-led attack and the subsequent war in Gaza. This has led to increased mistrust and hostility towards Israel's Arab minority. Suha Salman Mousa of the Mossawa Centre in Nazareth noted that following the attack, Arab Israelis felt treated as "enemies of this country," with a perceived shrinking space for free speech and a rise in arrests and job dismissals linked to social media activity or protests against the war.

Civil society groups also allege systematic discrimination and budget cuts targeting Arab communities, which the government attributes to wartime defense spending needs. Incidents of politicized campaigns against Arab healthcare workers and racially motivated attacks on Arab bus drivers have also been reported. Far-right figures have publicly discussed plans to "Judaise" areas with significant Arab populations, drawing parallels to West Bank settlement expansion.

Netanyahu's campaign has actively sought to capitalize on these tensions, employing billboards and AI-generated videos to portray his opponents as potentially forming a government with Arab parties, framing it as a threat to the country's Jewish identity.

Mohammed Magadli, a news anchor at Radio Nas, criticized the refusal of some Jewish parties to collaborate with Arab parties as rooted in "racism" and Netanyahu's political strategy to delegitimize Arab political representation. Polls indicate that Arab-majority parties could collectively win 13 to 14 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The main Arab parties include the Joint Arab List and the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas.

Abbas's party, the United Arab List, has shown a willingness to cooperate with Jewish parties, focusing on improving the lives of Arab Israelis. Abbas himself served as a minister in a previous government and has prioritized tangible gains for his constituents. He has taken steps to broaden his party's appeal, including placing a Jewish former police official as the second candidate on his slate, aiming to foster alliances within the next government.

Conversely, the Joint List, comprised of secular parties, advocates for equal rights for Arab Israelis, an end to the occupation of Palestinian territories, and a two-state solution. They aim to serve as a parliamentary "safety net" for those seeking to replace Netanyahu's government, in exchange for policy concessions.

A significant issue for Arab Israelis heading into the election is the high rate of gang violence within their communities. A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found this to be a primary concern for over 53% of Arab citizens. In 2023, homicides within the Arab community reached a record high, significantly exceeding those among Jewish Israelis.

Ziad Samouni, whose son was killed in Jaffa last November with no arrests made, expressed frustration with the perceived government inaction on resolving these murders. He stated, "It seems they're interested in making sure we reach a situation where the killer is never caught, allowing Arabs in Arab society to keep killing one another." The Israeli police have confirmed that the investigation into his son's murder is active and that they treat all violence with seriousness.

Despite attempts by some to disqualify Arab parties and their candidates from running in the election, these efforts were ultimately overruled by Israel's Supreme Court. As election day approaches, the role of Arab parties in shaping Israel's political future remains a central and closely watched development.