Andy Burnham is on the cusp of becoming Britain's next prime minister, potentially replacing Keir Starmer, who resigned on Monday. Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, was sworn into Parliament hours after Starmer's announcement and is currently the sole contender for the leadership of the Labour Party. If no other candidates emerge, he is expected to assume the role on July 17.
Burnham's ascent follows Labour's decisive victory in 2024, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. However, he will inherit the platform on which the party was elected, presenting a significant challenge in distancing himself from the policies enacted by Starmer's government. His return to the House of Commons marks a shift after a decade leading the economically revitalized Greater Manchester region.
Navigating Economic Challenges
A primary task for Burnham will be to address Starmer's struggles with delivering promised economic growth, repairing public services, and easing the cost of living crisis. Burnham has highlighted these issues, along with housing and youth employment, as key priorities. He has stated his commitment to economic revival without exceeding current government spending and borrowing limits. This pledge aims to reassure financial markets, which were unsettled by the brief tenure of Prime Minister Liz Truss in 2022 following unfunded tax cut announcements.
Political analysts suggest Burnham, often seen as being to the left of Starmer, must tread carefully to avoid alarming markets. "If you are a Labour prime minster from the soft left of the party, the markets don’t need that much invitation to panic," said Mark Goodwin, a politics lecturer at Coventry University. "They will start from a position of skepticism. So he’d have to be very, very careful."
Burnham's political approach, sometimes termed “Manchesterism,” advocates for a business-friendly socialist model that leverages private investment for major projects and promotes decentralization of government power to local communities. He is reportedly considering relocating some prime minister's office functions from London to his home region.
Policy Stances and International Relations
Burnham has committed to not raising taxes on workers, a pledge made by Starmer. He has also indicated policies that could ease the tax burden on businesses and potentially reverse an increase in employer taxes that fund pensions, public health care, and welfare. Questions remain about how these programs will be funded, whether existing priorities will be scrapped, and how demands for increased defense spending will be met. Starmer's government had pledged to meet NATO's target of 3.5% of GDP for military spending by 2035.
Burnham's experience on the international stage is noted as a potential challenge, particularly in managing the relationship with the United States. Former President Donald Trump has publicly described Burnham as a "town" mayor and expressed concerns about his political leanings. Starmer had prioritized building ties with Trump, securing a U.S.-U.K. trade deal, though this alienated some within the Labour Party. Burnham has previously expressed strong criticism of Trump following the January 6, 2021, events at the U.S. Capitol.
While Starmer received praise for his international engagement, particularly in supporting Ukraine and bolstering European alliances, he was also criticized for foreign policy distractions. Jill Rutter, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government, suggests Burnham may delegate some foreign affairs duties, potentially appointing an experienced foreign secretary. "I don’t think Andy Burnham will want to be ‘never-here Andy’ in succession to ‘never-here Keir,’" Rutter commented, referencing Starmer's perceived extensive international travel.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper confirmed discussions with Burnham regarding policy, stating he is "100% behind our unwavering support for Ukraine" and a proponent of NATO and multilateral partnerships.
Crafting a New Narrative
A key early task for Burnham will be to establish a clear and understandable narrative for the country's direction, a challenge Starmer faced. Burnham's communication skills and his public image as an approachable northern figure could be advantageous. Initially, he is expected to manage expectations but has the potential to outline a bolder vision if he secures public support for a full term following the next general election.
Burnham has also spoken about systemic political reform, including replacing the House of Lords with an elected senate and introducing proportional representation. He has expressed a long-term desire for the UK to rejoin the European Union, though he tempered this during his election campaign in a constituency that voted for Brexit.