Political analyst Craig Keshishian predicts a substantial Republican defeat in the upcoming midterm elections, forecasting that Democrats will regain control of both the House and the Senate. Keshishian, who previously advised on Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign polling, asserts that mainstream media polls are once again failing to capture the full picture of voter sentiment, a phenomenon he also observed before the 2024 presidential election.
Keshishian's forecasting model, which he describes as multidimensional and weighing proprietary metrics of voting behavior, suggests a different outcome than most polls indicate. He points to recent primary elections as evidence of a surge in Democratic engagement. In Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, for instance, 792,009 ballots were cast, significantly outnumbering the 490,819 cast in the Republican primary. Similarly, Michigan's Democratic Senate primary saw over 1.53 million votes, while the uncontested Republican primary had no competitive turnout.
"These contests are creating significant media events, garnering national coverage and motivating Democrats to turnout," Keshishian wrote. He specifically notes the anticipated return of college students to campuses in the fall as a further motivator for Democratic voters. While conservative groups like Turning Point USA have been active, Keshishian contends that Democrats have refined their "turnout operations" into an art form, utilizing methods such as ballot harvesting.
He suggests that without former President Donald Trump on the ballot, Republican voters may exhibit less enthusiasm. "Traditional Republican voters who would have crawled over broken glass to support Trump in '24, will stay home watching SportsCenter, instead of braving the elements to vote for a lacklustre candidate," Keshishian stated, also noting historical parallels like the 1986 midterms, where Republicans lost control of the Senate during Reagan's presidency despite his earlier electoral success.
Keshishian also posits that polls may be undercounting traditional Democratic voters who are disengaged by the rise of democratic socialists or are simply not responding to pollsters. He draws a parallel to the loss of Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, suggesting that her polling lead did not translate to victory on Election Day because of these undercounted voters.
Economically, Keshishian identifies persistent high costs for essential goods such as gas, groceries, and utilities, along with elevated interest rates, as factors contributing to voter dissatisfaction. He believes these issues, coupled with American involvement in the Iran war, will alienate segments of the electorate, including some first-time Republican voters from young and ethnic minority demographics who have seen "promises made and not kept."
Drawing on historical trends, Keshishian references past presidents like George W. Bush, who saw gains in 2002 midterms following 9/11 but lost seats in 2006 as conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan continued. He also points to George H.W. Bush's loss in 1992 despite a high approval rating, attributing it to a sluggish economy.
"The past is prologue," Keshishian concluded, predicting that Democrats will control both chambers of Congress come January 2027. He expressed doubt about the current roster of Republican Congressional candidates' ability to effectively address these challenges and counter the Democratic ground game. For Republicans, he warned, "The GOP needs up its ground game, quickly, or face a turnout debacle."