Prime Minister Andy Burnham's ambitious plan to reform the United Kingdom's social care system may cost an estimated £21 billion more than initially anticipated, according to an analysis of the flagship policy. Burnham has pledged to address what he described as a "broken" system and last week outlined preliminary plans for a National Care Service.
The Prime Minister has acknowledged that implementing these reforms will require "difficult decisions," fueling concerns about potential tax hikes. Analysis by The Mail on Sunday suggests these increases could be substantial. The proposed system is reportedly intended to mirror Scotland's model, where health and social services are integrated at a cost of £18 billion.
However, experts have pointed to a decline in volunteer care provision in Scotland, where the percentage of unpaid caregivers has dropped from 26% to 18%. If a similar trend were to occur across England and Wales, where approximately four million individuals provide unpaid care, it could create a funding shortfall of £21 billion.
Costings have become a sensitive issue for Burnham since he assumed the premiership two weeks prior. The Mail on Sunday previously reported that his administration has committed to policy pledges totaling £96 billion without a clear explanation of their funding. Burnham has not ruled out tax increases, having previously stated that Britain is "under taxed" and might need to "ask for a little more" to finance his agenda.
"Like so many of Andy Burnham's shifting plans, he has not done the hard work to figure out the detail before making an announcement," said Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride. "The key question here is, 'Who is paying?'"
Maxwell Marlow, from the economic policy think-tank the Adam Smith Institute, added, "The Prime Minister's social care plan is littered with pitfalls. If he chooses to copy the Scottish model, he may encounter a mass exodus, creating a significant black hole."
Advocacy groups have called for policies that support the creation of more paid jobs within the care sector. Emily Holzhausen of the charity Carers UK stated, "There are 4.7million unpaid carers in England... We want unpaid carers' futures to be at the heart of this conversation." The charity reports that approximately 600 people leave their jobs daily to provide unpaid care, and suggests that 35% of them would not need to if a reliable social care service were in place.
During a recent speech in Golders Green, north London, Burnham emphasized his commitment to social care reform, criticizing past politicians for a "major dereliction of public duty." He announced plans to expedite the independent review into adult social care in England, led by Baroness Casey, aiming for its completion by next summer, a year ahead of schedule. Burnham has also initiated cross-party discussions on reforms with the Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties, although some critics have suggested the timing and nature of these meetings indicate they are performative.