An analysis suggests that Labour's proposed early prison release scheme could lead to approximately 89,000 additional crimes by mid-2029. The forecast indicates that released sex offenders, robbers, arsonists, and violent criminals are expected to commit a substantial number of new offenses. According to the analysis, this could result in nearly 1,800 violent crimes, just under 36,000 thefts, around 500 additional sex offenses, over 7,000 drug-related offenses, and up to 3,000 public order offenses.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has approved the controversial plan, intended to alleviate prison overcrowding. The scheme, set to take effect in October, is part of the Sentencing Act 2026. This initiative allows prisoners to be released before completing their full sentences. Under the new plans, individuals who previously served two-thirds of their sentence before being considered for release can now be eligible after serving half. Less serious offenders may be released after serving one-third of their sentence instead of half.
The Conservatives have raised concerns, with Tory justice spokesman Nick Timothy stating that the scheme would allow dangerous offenders back onto the streets, leading to an estimated 89,225 more offenses during the current parliamentary term. He urged Labour to reconsider the policy.
This policy has faced public scrutiny, particularly after a petition garnered over 861,000 signatures to keep the killers of PC Andrew Harper in jail. The Prime Minister had previously paused the scheme to review its implications, especially concerning the potential early release of those convicted of killing emergency workers.
The Ministry of Justice acknowledged that early release measures "may have impacts" on re-offending rates, noting a recent increase in the proven re-offending rate to 29.9 percent, up 1.9 percent year-on-year. However, the ministry also stated that it is "not possible to isolate the impact of individual policies on re-offending rates." The ministry defended the Sentencing Act, arguing that without such reforms, prisons could reach capacity, leading to a collapse of the system and unchecked criminality. They highlighted a £700 million investment in probation and community punishment to manage offenders safely in the community.
Reform UK's justice spokesman Zia Yusuf plans to announce measures to halt early release for those convicted of murder and serious violent crimes, and to deport foreign nationals serving sentences in the UK. He criticized the current government's approach, attributing the prison capacity crisis to immigration policies and a lack of new prison places, while the Conservatives also implemented early releases for murderers and rapists.
The analysis from which these figures were derived used Ministry of Justice data on the number of criminals eligible for early release for specific offenses. It calculated the extended time these individuals would spend in the community and factored in their likelihood of re-offending to estimate the number of additional crimes.