An analysis of a list compiled by the Trump administration and used by the Department of Justice to identify alleged noncitizen voters in California has found that more than 40% of the names are not present on the state's voter rolls. The analysis, conducted by two data analysts from the University of California, Los Angeles, also indicated that thousands of U.S. citizens may be mistakenly flagged as ineligible to vote.
The findings were detailed in a legal filing by the UCLA Voting Rights Project and the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA), which is suing the Department of Homeland Security over the use of federal immigration data to challenge voter rolls. The government's list contained 20,930 names, which the Department of Justice demanded California election officials treat as potential illegal voters.
The UCLA analysis determined that 8,880 of these names, or 42%, do not correspond to anyone in California's current voter file. Furthermore, the analysis identified at least 22 U.S. citizens on the list and suggested that many more may belong to confirmed citizens.
"The expert analysis further makes clear that the mandated voter list endangers a significant number of eligible California voter," stated the filing, which was also signed by Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate for California governor and an adviser to the UCLA Voting Rights Project.
Multiple judges have previously rejected the Justice Department's demands as unconstitutional, with local and state officials also reporting numerous errors in the government's list. The Trump administration had initially resisted sharing the list, deeming it a "fishing expedition." However, a federal judge ordered the list to be shared with plaintiffs in the case on Friday.
Bill Essayli, head of the U.S. Attorney’s office in Los Angeles, dismissed the analysis as "bogus" and criticized CHIRLA as an "activist illegal immigrant rights group." Former President Donald Trump also voiced his displeasure with the legal rulings, claiming on social media that his administration had identified "Hundreds of Thousands, and maybe even Millions" of fraudulent votes.
The Justice Department has warned California election officials about potential criminal liability if noncitizens are allowed to vote and has issued subpoenas to election offices in the state. Election officials have expressed concerns that such demands are often presented at the last minute, leaving insufficient time for the legally required investigations before removing a voter from the rolls.
The lawsuit highlights concerns that the data-matching methods used by the government could lead to the disenfranchisement or deterrence of eligible voters, with a disproportionate impact on naturalized citizens who are legally permitted to vote. The UCLA researchers found that nearly 7,500 naturalized citizens in California were deemed "highly likely" to be incorrectly flagged as ineligible. They also noted that the removal of voter identification numbers from the names on the list made it more difficult for election officials to verify the accuracy of the government's data.
A spokesperson for the Justice Department stated that "every ballot cast by an ineligible voter cancels out the vote of an American citizen" and that the department "makes no apology for protecting those votes."