American Jews Fleeing US Antisemitism Could Sway Israeli Election

Thousands of American Jews who have moved to Israel in recent years, citing rising antisemitism in the United States, could play a pivotal role in the upcoming national election. Observers suggest that this demographic largely supports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

An estimated 3,500 Americans have made Aliyah, the process of immigrating to Israel, annually for the past two years. This surge follows the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza, as well as anti-Israel protests across the U.S. Marc Zell, Chairman of Republicans Overseas Israel, estimates there are now approximately 500,000 American Israelis, with about 200,000 originating from New York City. Zell believes that 80-90% of these dual citizens vote Republican and are also backing Netanyahu in his bid for reelection.

The election is largely focused on whether voters blame Netanyahu for security failures that preceded the Oct. 7 attacks or see him as the strongest leader to navigate the current multi-front war. Zell voiced his support for Netanyahu, stating, "To hang Oct. 7 around Bibi’s neck is unfair," using Netanyahu's common nickname. He argues that while an independent commission to investigate the events of Oct. 7 is necessary, it should occur after the war, emphasizing the immediate need to "take steps to remove the Iranian threat."

However, Heather Stone, Vice Chair of American Democrats in Israel, disputes Zell's assessment. Stone, an attorney from New Jersey who moved to Israel in 1990, indicated that American Israelis from her organization cite a "combination of reasons" for supporting opposition parties. These voters often favor an immediate inquiry into the Oct. 7 attacks and advocate for enforcing military conscription on ultra-Orthodox Jews, known as Haredim, who are currently exempt. Netanyahu's Likud party and its conservative religious allies have historically protected the Haredim from military service.

Polls currently suggest that Netanyahu's ruling alliance is trailing the center-right alliance led by former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu's main rival. Neither bloc is projected to win the 61 seats required to form a government independently. Israeli election law mandates that citizens be in the country on election day, with few exceptions. Consequently, tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad are arranging flights to cast their ballots, with one group, AID Coalition, organizing flights for 67,000 expatriates, approximately half of whom are from the U.S.

Yisrael Medad, who was born in the Bronx and raised in Queens, expressed his belief that Netanyahu is "the only one who can get things done in the present constellation of Trump and on the world stage." Jeff Michels, son of the late city councilman Stanley Michels, noted that the Oct. 7 attacks have significantly altered perceptions regarding the country's direction. Michels, a lawyer who has lived in Israel for 30 years, observed that while "bread and butter issues" like inflation are not primary electoral concerns, security remains paramount.

Hillel Shenker, originally from Brooklyn, plans to vote for the left-leaning opposition parties, stating that Netanyahu "has not taken responsibility for the mistakes he made" concerning Hamas.