The United States is experiencing its lowest murder rate in 70 years, yet public perception continues to suggest crime is worsening. Since Gallup began tracking national crime sentiment in 1989, a majority of Americans have believed crime was increasing year-over-year, with the exception of 2000, 2001, and 2025. This persistent belief in rising crime may represent a form of negativity bias, where negative news is given more weight than positive developments.
According to recent FBI data, the American murder rate fell to an estimated 4.1 per 100,000 people in 2025. This figure matches the rates recorded in 1955 and 1956, marking a historic low. The overall violent crime rate, which includes murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, saw a 9.7 percent decrease, the most substantial single-year drop since 1936.
Despite these statistics, the exact causes for the significant crime reduction remain largely unknown. Experts like Adam Gelb of the Council on Criminal Justice and analyst Jeff Asher agree that there is no single, straightforward explanation. Potential contributing factors such as federal pandemic relief spending, a post-2020 social normalization, improved violence prevention programs, or a decrease in alcohol consumption have all been proposed, but each lacks definitive proof.
Baltimore stands out as a city where researchers can identify specific programs and measure their impact on crime rates. Historically known for high homicide numbers, Baltimore recorded over 300 homicides annually for much of the last decade and over 200 for most of the past 50 years. In July 2015 alone, the city saw 45 homicides, a high number for its population at the time.
Baltimore's Crime Reduction Strategy
Baltimore concluded 2025 with 133 homicides, the lowest number since 1977 and approximately 60 percent fewer than in 2020. The city has set a target to remain under 100 homicides for the current year. This decline is attributed to a combination of strategies implemented by Mayor Brandon Scott's administration.
The Group Violence Reduction Strategy targets individuals most likely to be involved in shootings, offering them resources such as housing and job training alongside a clear message that they are under surveillance. Complementing this is the Safe Streets program, which employs outreach workers with credibility in affected communities to mediate disputes and prevent violence before it escalates.
In addition to these harm-reduction measures, a more traditional law enforcement approach is also in place. The state's attorney's office reported securing 2,129 convictions since 2023 in gun-related violent crime categories, with over 1,700 defendants incarcerated. Baltimore's homicide clearance rate reached 60 percent by mid-2026, with a nonfatal shooting clearance rate of 54 percent, an increase of over 12 percentage points from the previous year. Criminologists emphasize that the certainty of apprehension is a significant deterrent, and increased success in solving shootings is a common element in areas experiencing falling violence rates.
Evaluating Program Effectiveness
To assess the impact of these interventions, researchers utilized Baltimore's Western District as a natural experiment. When the Group Violence Reduction Strategy was launched exclusively in this district in 2022, the rest of the city served as a control group. Over 18 months, the number of shootings, both fatal and nonfatal, in the Western District was approximately 30 percent lower than in comparable neighborhoods without the program. While killings also decreased, the rarity of homicides made it difficult to definitively rule out chance. Notably, arrests for serious violent crime in the district rose by 81 percent.
A broader comparison, pitting Baltimore's overall murder rate against a composite of other large American cities, suggested a roughly 25 percent lower rate for Baltimore. However, researchers caution that the simultaneous implementation of multiple changes in Baltimore makes it challenging to attribute the decline solely to the strategy.
The foundation of Baltimore's success lies in two distinct ideas. The first originates from Dr. Gary Slutkin, who, after working in public health combating diseases like cholera and AIDS, applied epidemiological principles to urban violence. Observing that shootings clustered in specific areas and times, similar to disease outbreaks, Slutkin developed the concept of treating violence as a transmissible phenomenon. This led to the creation of the CeaseFire program, now known as Cure Violence Global, which inspired Baltimore's Safe Streets initiative.
The second influential idea comes from criminologist David Kennedy. His work in Boston in the 1990s identified a small group of gang members responsible for a disproportionately high percentage of youth homicides. Kennedy proposed gathering these individuals with law enforcement and community leaders to communicate consequences, a strategy known as focused deterrence. Baltimore's Group Violence Reduction Strategy incorporates this approach.
Global Parallels and Lingering Questions
Similar strategies have been employed globally, such as in Glasgow, Scotland, which was once considered Europe's murder capital. In 2005, a Violence Reduction Unit was established, implementing interventions like trauma surgeons speaking in schools and outreach workers engaging with victims post-attack to prevent retaliation. In 2024-25, Scotland recorded its fewest homicides since 1976, with every case solved.
Despite these promising results, conclusive evidence of program effectiveness remains elusive. A 2023 study of a similar street-outreach program in Boston found no significant impact. While evaluations of Baltimore's Safe Streets program showed encouraging reductions in youth homicides and shootings, the results were not statistically strong enough to eliminate the possibility of chance. Some sites even experienced increases in youth homicides.
Criminologists like Emily Owens suggest that the widespread and consistent nature of the crime decline across diverse cities points to larger societal shifts rather than localized program successes. Furthermore, the sustainability of these reductions is uncertain, as significant funding for many programs, including those in Baltimore, came from federal pandemic relief money, which is now diminishing.
The historical parallel to Dr. John Snow's intervention during the 1854 Broad Street cholera outbreak in London is notable. Snow identified the contaminated water pump as the source and had its handle removed, halting the epidemic. While the pathogen responsible for cholera would not be identified for decades, Snow's immediate action provided relief. Similarly, the exact mechanisms behind the current crime decline may take time to fully understand, but the observed reduction in violence, as seen in Baltimore and across the US, is a significant development.