Progressive congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has taken the lead in prediction markets for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, surpassing California Governor Gavin Newsom. Online markets Kalshi and Polymarket show Ocasio-Cortez with 18% and 19% odds, respectively. Newsom had previously held the top spot since the markets were established.
This shift in prediction market favor is interpreted by some as an indicator of the Democratic Party's potential pivot further left, with growing momentum for Democratic Socialist candidates. Despite these odds, national opinion polls present a different picture. A recent Rasmussen poll indicated that former Vice President Kamala Harris leads the field of potential Democratic nominees with 37% support among likely Democratic primary voters, an increase from 34% in May. In the same poll, Newsom garnered 14% support, and Ocasio-Cortez received 9%. Pete Buttigieg, former Transportation Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate, had 10% support.
None of the potential contenders have officially announced a presidential bid. However, Ocasio-Cortez has acknowledged her recent surge in popularity. When asked about the possibility of running in the next election, she told ABC News, "I haven’t ruled out the possibility," adding, "I’m very humbled by the tremendous amount of support out there."
Ocasio-Cortez's prominent position is attributed to her social media engagement, her advocacy for progressive policies, and her widespread name recognition. She recently gained attention for her online videos discussing egg freezing and fertility treatments, which sparked public discussion and speculation.
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The congresswoman's profile has also been raised through her association with progressive figures. Last year, she hosted rallies with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a prominent progressive voice, and their political alignment has been noted.
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Ocasio-Cortez's rise in prediction markets coincides with a broader trend of progressive candidates achieving success in various elections. The report notes progressive victories in Michigan and Minnesota, with candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Peggy Flanagan winning primaries against centrist opponents. Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York is also mentioned as part of this progressive wave.