Alberta Separatism Movement Gains Traction, Fueled by Grievances

For decades, Alberta separatism was a fringe cause. But on Monday, voters in Canada’s oil heartland will decide whether to take the first step toward a referendum on leaving the country. Voters in Alberta, home to the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, will determine if the province should begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the vote but supports remaining in Canada, has stated that support for starting the separation process, which recently stood at around 23% in a poll, is still "too high for my liking."

Alberta has a long history of feuding with the federal government over energy policy and federal power. Past Liberal prime ministers Pierre Trudeau and his son Justin became deeply unpopular in the province due to their energy policies. Justin Trudeau’s government imposed a national carbon tax and other climate measures that Alberta leaders argued harmed its oil industry. However, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney noted that separatist parties typically drew only 1% or 2% of the vote.

The landscape shifted with the COVID-19 pandemic and the Freedom Convoy protests, which paralyzed parts of Ottawa and blocked major Canada-U.S. border crossings. Kenney suggested that the convoy provided a new cause that "naturally morphed into separatism."

Jeff Rath, a leader of the independence movement, cited federal vaccine rules as a catalyst, stating that the pandemic restrictions were "the straw that broke the camel’s back." He observed that "a lot of people were radicalized by the convoy." The 2022 Freedom Convoy, which began over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers, evolved into a broader revolt against pandemic restrictions. Kenney believes that public anger over globalization, vaccines, and pandemic restrictions, coupled with social media’s ability to connect isolated activists, fueled the movement.

Kenney also noted that the movement became more professional, establishing organizations, raising funds, and drawing in experienced political operatives. He identified a significant overlap between separatist activists and individuals who support Russian President Vladimir Putin or subscribe to conspiracy theories. Kenney emphasized that these observations apply to activists, not necessarily to typical separatist voters who he characterized as frustrated Albertans sending a message to Ottawa.

According to Kenney, the MAGA movement has been "inspirational" for some separatist activists, with attempts to "infiltrate with at least some success" the United Conservative Party he founded. Smith, who replaced Kenney in 2022, appealed to United Conservative Party members angered by COVID-19 restrictions.

Federal government figures like Prime Minister Mark Carney have prioritized getting Alberta's oil to new markets and support a proposed pipeline to the West Coast. Carney's business- and energy-friendly policies, along with his opposition to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade rhetoric, have garnered him unusual popularity in Alberta. Kenney acknowledged Carney as someone who "speaks as an Albertan" and understands the province’s grievances.

Rath described Carney as a "formidable opponent" and acknowledged the separatists face an uphill battle, with most major politicians opposing their cause. He expressed that he would be "thrilled" with more than 30% of the vote, which would fall short of a majority.

Carney stated, "Canada is facing real threats to our economy, to our security, to our way of life. We have to be strong and we are stronger together."

Separatists have actively campaigned in Washington D.C., as Alberta sends roughly 90% of its crude oil exports to the United States. Rath confirmed meetings with U.S. State Department officials, presenting a document outlining potential benefits of an independent Alberta. Rath claimed that individuals involved in these meetings were also going directly to the White House, with a potential oil pipeline to the Pacific being a topic of discussion. The State Department commented that it "regularly meets with a wide range of representatives" and that the vote is "a decision for the people of Alberta."

Kenney called the outreach "bonkers," criticizing individuals with "zero democratic mandate" for discussing the status of a non-existent separate state with a foreign government. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has referred to Alberta as "a natural partner."

Keith Wilson, another Alberta independence leader and legal counsel for the 2022 convoy organizers, views the vote as a means to gain leverage with Ottawa, even if full independence is not achieved. He suggested that substantial structural changes to Alberta's relationship with Ottawa would be acceptable short of independence.

Kenney predicts the separatist movement will persist, noting that even 10% to 20% support would exceed historic vote shares. He warned that if low turnout pushed support toward 30%, "they’re going to be even more emboldened." He characterized this not as a threat to Canada, but "a threat to the conservative movement."

Alberta is not Canada's sole national-unity challenge. In Quebec, the separatist Parti Quebecois returned to power on Oct. 5, although support for independence remains around 30%, and its leader has indicated no referendum would be held while Trump is U.S. president. Quebec voters narrowly rejected independence in a 1995 referendum.