The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is facing a critical test of its political influence in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, where its substantial financial backing may fall short of its objectives. The group has invested over $30 million, its largest single election expenditure, to support Rep. Haley Stevens and defeat Abdul El-Sayed, a vocal critic of Israel.
For decades, AIPAC has been a powerful force in U.S. politics, channeling hundreds of millions of dollars into lobbying and elections to promote policies supportive of the Israeli government. The organization has also worked to defeat candidates perceived as too critical of Israel or too supportive of the Palestinian cause. However, the current political climate, particularly the widespread devastation in Gaza, appears to be shifting the Democratic base, creating a potentially unfavorable environment for AIPAC's usual strategies.
El-Sayed has openly campaigned against AIPAC's involvement, framing it as a disqualifier for his opponent and seeking to leverage the Democratic Party's growing unease with Israel's conduct in Gaza. Recent polling suggests this strategy may be effective, with El-Sayed reportedly holding a double-digit lead.
If El-Sayed prevails, it could mark a significant defeat for AIPAC and signal a new era in American politics where the group's considerable spending might become less effective, or even detrimental, among Democratic voters.
Shifting Political Landscape
To understand the dynamics at play, former Michigan Congressman Andy Levin, who previously lost his seat to Haley Stevens after crossing AIPAC on the issue of Israel, offers insights. Levin, a member of a prominent Michigan Jewish political family, staked out positions on Israel that drew strong opposition from AIPAC. A former president of the group once described him as "arguably the most corrosive member of Congress to the US-Israel relationship."
Levin's own experience highlights AIPAC's past effectiveness. In the 2022 primary, after redistricting placed him and Stevens in the same district, AIPAC spent over $4 million to support Stevens, contributing to Levin's defeat.
Levin's Stance and AIPAC's Opposition
Levin, who now supports El-Sayed, detailed his long-standing human rights activism rooted in his Jewish values. He described visiting Israel and Palestine in 1990 and concluding that the occupation was "totally toxic" and that a resolution required realizing Palestinian rights. His positions, he stated, have remained consistent.
Upon entering Congress in 2018, Levin became involved in foreign affairs. During the 2021 Gaza conflict, he advocated for addressing the cycle of violence and pursuing peace. He introduced the "Two-State Solution Act," which, while described by Levin as modest, included language referring to Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem as occupied territories under international law. This legislative language drew criticism from groups like Democratic Majority for Israel.
Levin recounted how this stance created a significant obstacle. He explained that while some colleagues initially supported his bill, they later withdrew their co-sponsorship due to pressure from AIPAC, illustrating the group's perceived stranglehold on congressional discourse regarding Israel.
The Impact of Recent Events
Levin attributes the shift in the Democratic base's sentiment towards Israel to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, citing the high Palestinian death toll, the destruction of civilian infrastructure, and the U.S. role in providing weapons. He also connects this to a broader concern about "dark money" and special interest influence in politics, criticizing AIPAC's reliance on contributions from Republican donors to influence Democratic primaries.
He argues that many voters prioritize economic issues, healthcare, and jobs over foreign policy specifics. For candidates in the current climate, Levin emphasizes the need for authenticity, boldness, and truth-telling. He believes El-Sayed's direct opposition to AIPAC's influence and his perceived authenticity resonate with voters who are disillusioned with conventional politics.
Levin suggests that El-Sayed has the potential to mobilize a broader electorate, drawing parallels to Michigan's history of nominating diverse candidates in presidential primaries. He contends that El-Sayed's independent stance and appeal to voters weary of the political establishment make him a stronger candidate, not just for the primary, but potentially for the general election in November.