AI Stumbles in Week 1 of NFL Betting Experiment, Human Picks Show Early Edge
ChatGPT went 0-5 in its Week 1 NFL betting picks, losing over five units, while its human competitor finished 3-2.
A season-long experiment pitting artificial intelligence against human intuition in NFL betting has begun with a surprising outcome: the human has taken an early lead. In Week 1, ChatGPT went a dismal 0-5, losing 5.23 units, while the human participant finished the week with a 3-2 record, gaining 0.99 units.
This head-to-head challenge involves both ChatGPT and a human analyst making five best bets each week, with selections restricted to odds no worse than -120. Each wager is sized to win one unit.
Week 1 NFL Betting Results
Human Picks (3-2, +0.99 units)
- Chicago Bears -3 (-106) ✅
- Jacksonville Jaguars-Cleveland Browns Under 40½ (-110) ❌
- Washington Commanders +5½ (-106) ✅
- Las Vegas Raiders-Miami Dolphins Under 41 (-110) ✅
- Green Bay Packers Moneyline (+110) ❌
The human analyst secured a profitable opening week by correctly picking the Bears spread and the Raiders-Dolphins under. A loss on the Packers moneyline and the Browns-Jaguars under prevented a more dominant performance.
ChatGPT Picks (0-5, -5.23 units)
- Houston Texans +1½ (-108) ❌
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Cincinnati Bengals Under 50½ (-108) ❌
- Detroit Lions -7 (-106) ❌
- Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) ❌
- Green Bay Packers Moneyline (+110) ❌
ChatGPT's selections all resulted in losses, including outright losses for the Texans, Chargers, and Packers, and a failure to cover for the Lions. The Buccaneers-Bengals under also failed to hit.
Week 2 Betting Picks
For Week 2, the human analyst is looking to build on the early advantage with five new picks:
- Cleveland Browns +8 (-108)
- Green Bay Packers -3½ (-105)
- Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons Under 44 (-110)
- Washington Commanders +4 (-108)
- Los Angeles Chargers -6½ (-110)
ChatGPT, after an upgraded model analysis, has also put forth its Week 2 selections:
- Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-110)
- Pittsburgh Steelers-New England Patriots Under 41½ (-107)
- New York Giants +7 (-102)
- Kansas City Chiefs -6½ (-115)
- Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears Under 48 (-106)
Despite the Week 1 performance, the analyst acknowledges the small sample size and the ongoing nature of the season-long experiment. The goal is to determine whether human intuition or artificial intelligence will ultimately prove superior in predicting NFL outcomes.