Fears of widespread job displacement due to artificial intelligence may be overstated, according to a new study that posits AI could become a significant driver of American economic prosperity. The report, titled "Boomsday Not Doomsday," argues that AI has the potential to lower the cost and increase the speed of production for a wide range of goods and services, ultimately enhancing living standards.
Generative AI is experiencing rapid growth, reportedly three times faster than mobile apps or the internet did in their early stages. The study indicates that nearly nine out of ten organizations are currently using AI in at least one business function. Americans value AI tools at an estimated $172 billion annually, based on what they would need to be paid to give them up. The authors suggest that widespread adoption of AI could lead to dramatic price reductions in essential goods and services such as food, housing, and healthcare.
The study draws parallels to previous technological revolutions, such as the introduction of the tractor and the internet, which also raised concerns about job losses but ultimately led to increased productivity and the creation of new economic opportunities. Historically, technology has automated laborious tasks, improved efficiency, and opened avenues for unforeseen employment. Current data shows unemployment at 4.3%, and workers most exposed to AI have experienced smaller increases in unemployment than those less exposed between 2022 and early 2025. Demand for AI-related skills is also surging, with job postings for these skills increasing by 111% in a single year.
AI's potential applications are vast, ranging from personalized assistance for small businesses and clearer patient instructions from doctors to aiding homeowners in identifying structural issues and assisting teachers in creating tailored lesson plans. In healthcare, AI tools are being used to detect diseases like pancreatic cancer earlier, potentially saving lives. Physicians using AI note-takers are reportedly saving approximately an hour of administrative work per day, allowing for more patient-focused care.
However, the study also warns that the United States risks falling behind other nations, particularly China, in adopting and leveraging AI technology. While the U.S. invented much of the core AI technology, its adoption rate among adults is lower compared to other countries. China, conversely, is investing heavily in industrial robots and developing advanced AI models. The report highlights a significant difference in the deployment of industrial robots, with China installing hundreds of thousands compared to tens of thousands in the U.S. in 2024.
Concerns are raised about potential overregulation in the U.S., with over 1,700 AI-related bills introduced in state legislatures in the current year. Some proposals include government ownership of AI companies or bans on new AI supercomputers. The authors argue that such measures could stifle innovation and cede technological leadership to competitors. The study advocates for a policy approach similar to the early internet era, one that encourages adoption and innovation to secure economic and national security benefits.