Artificial intelligence is increasingly reshaping China's job market, prompting widespread concern among workers about potential job displacement. This trend is supported by government policies aimed at accelerating AI adoption across numerous sectors, leading some economists to question the long-term impact on the strength of the world's second-largest economy.
The rapid integration of AI, from computer programming and scriptwriting to performing physical tasks, is directly affecting employment. China is positioning itself at the forefront of AI adoption, with government initiatives encouraging both individuals and businesses to embrace AI applications and robotics. This proactive approach means workers like former computer programmer Fei Zhaojun are confronting the reality of AI's capabilities.
Fei, who was laid off with approximately 160 colleagues from his Beijing job, expressed that mid-level coding roles are largely replaceable. "Even if it is a disaster that leads to replacing all humans, at this stage, you just have to use it as everyone else is using it," he stated. He is currently exploring new career paths, creating vlog-style videos about ordinary life.
Similar anxieties are present in other fields. Du Qinchun, a part-time translator in Chengdu, has been training AI models for translation, a role that has provided temporary work. However, he noted a significant drop in industry pay rates, which have fallen by more than half compared to previous years. The growing prevalence of AI-powered translation tools has also led to a decline in popularity for traditional foreign language college programs.
The shift is quantifiable, with the share of Chinese industrial enterprises reporting the use of AI models and agents jumping to 47.5% in the last year from 9.6% in 2024, according to market intelligence firm IDC. IDC research manager Yanze Du highlighted China's open-source model ecosystem as a driver for AI innovation in industrial settings.
AI is also impacting manual and creative labor. Humanoid robots are beginning to sort parcels in postal centers and are being tested in tasks like directing traffic and making coffee. Food delivery robots are also becoming more common, potentially affecting the livelihoods of millions of delivery workers. In the entertainment sector, generative AI is being increasingly used in the production and distribution of short-form video dramas, contributing to a reported 75% decrease in live-action short and vertical video series production in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous year.
"Tasks that once required specialized training can now be performed by almost anyone with access to AI tools," said Shujing He, a senior analyst at Plenum. "This is particularly evident in software development and multimedia creation. As a result, workers whose roles are narrowly concentrated in these areas may face greater displacement risk."
An International Labour Organization report indicates that women may be at higher risk of job loss due to AI, as they are often employed in sectors more susceptible to automation and are underrepresented in science and technology fields.
Government Push and Economic Implications
China's "AI Plus" initiative and its five-year plan through 2030 underscore the government's commitment to integrating AI across industries, aiming to strengthen its technological position relative to the United States. Zilan Qian, a research associate at Oxford China Policy Lab, noted that "the government is really into diffusing AI across the economy, so AI may get into different domains more quickly comparing to other countries."
This rapid AI integration occurs against a backdrop of slowing economic growth and lagging consumer spending, exacerbated by concerns over job security and a downturn in the housing market. Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, suggested that while AI could boost productivity, its disruptive effect on employment might worsen job growth problems and potentially impact social stability.
Chinese tech giants, mirroring trends among their U.S. counterparts, have undertaken significant layoffs and restructuring, partly attributed to AI. The broader job market outlook remains uncertain, with China's urban unemployment rate around 5%, while the rate for individuals aged 16 to 24, excluding students, is approximately three times higher.
Long-Term Workforce Dynamics
Looking ahead, some experts suggest that declining birth rates and an aging population in China could eventually lead to falling unemployment rates. By 2050, China is projected to have fewer working-age adults supporting each retiree compared to the U.S. Xuenan Cao, a professor at San Francisco Bay University, posits that automation could serve as a partial offset to a shrinking workforce.
Even as AI automates certain tasks, human oversight remains critical. Wang Zhicheng, a former scriptwriter, now independently producing illustrated children's books, views AI as a tool. "You can treat AI as a tool just like (Microsoft) Word," Wang said. "Humans are still the decision makers on which one to pick or pursue among all that AI generates."
Educators are also navigating AI's influence. High school chemistry teacher Yang Zheng, 29, sees AI as a beneficial resource for students, enabling real-time assistance and follow-up questions, despite acknowledging its occasional inaccuracies. He believes AI can supplement, rather than replace, human instruction.