Abortion Rights Face Crucial Test in Maine Senate Race

Abortion rights, a driving issue in past elections, has largely receded from national political campaigns, with candidates in battleground races now prioritizing cost-of-living concerns, immigration, and policing. However, in Maine, abortion remains a central focus for Democrats seeking to unseat Republican Senator Susan Collins.

As of mid-September, Democratic advertisers had allocated approximately 15 percent of their $40.8 million in broadcast TV and streaming expenditures to ads centered on abortion rights, according to AdImpact. This marks a significant shift from the national trend, where abortion was mentioned in less than 5 percent of Democratic Senate ads by mid-August, according to the Wesleyan Media Project. Planned Parenthood's political arm is making its largest ad buy of the 2026 cycle, $600,000, targeting Collins. WinSenate, a super PAC aligned with Senate Democratic leadership, has dedicated 70 percent of its media spending in Maine to abortion-focused advertisements.

The race targets Collins, the sole Republican senator up for reelection in a state that voted for President Trump in 2024. Seeking her sixth term, Collins faces voters for the first time since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a decision facilitated by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose 2018 confirmation Collins cast the deciding vote for. Collins has consistently described herself as "pro-choice."

For abortion rights advocacy groups, this election represents a critical opportunity. They are channeling substantial resources into Maine, a state where fewer than half a percent of voters identify abortion as their primary issue. The hope is that Collins's vote for Kavanaugh will mobilize the Democratic base and persuade undecided voters, particularly older women who have historically supported Collins. A loss for Collins could empower these groups to argue that abortion access remains a decisive factor for voters. Conversely, a Collins victory might be attributed to other factors, leaving the issue's electoral impact unresolved.

The Vote Collins Won’t Apologize For

When Collins voted to confirm Kavanaugh in 2018, she stated her belief that he considered Roe v. Wade settled precedent. This came after she had previously asserted she would not support nominees exhibiting "hostility" toward the 1973 decision. Despite indications from Kavanaugh's record that he might vote to overturn Roe v. Wade, Collins dismissed these concerns, suggesting opponents were overly agitated. Following the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, which overturned Roe, Collins issued a statement calling the ruling "ill-considered."

However, Collins has more recently stated she does "not regret" her vote for Kavanaugh. Democrats point to her continued support for anti-abortion federal judges, including her vote to confirm Joshua Dunlap to the US Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, as evidence of her stance. Maine Democratic Party spokesperson Misha Linnehan argued that Collins's actions have alienated women voters.

Collins's campaign spokesperson, Blake Kernen, countered that Collins has also confirmed numerous judges nominated by President Biden, including a litigator from the Center for Reproductive Rights, and voted against Justice Amy Coney Barrett. "There’s no one vote that could take away or validate her views on this issue," Kernen said.

Despite her past support for abortion access, including co-sponsoring a bill to codify Roe v. Wade in 2022, Collins's judicial votes have drawn scrutiny. Some advocates suggest her record has shifted, particularly concerning judicial confirmations.

Turnout and Persuasion

Political scientists acknowledge that while abortion access may not be the top issue for many Maine voters, its salience as an attack issue is potent. "If you go to a voter in Maine and you say, what are your top three or five issues, they may not name abortion. But if you say to them, Susan Collins took the following vote — and one of them is Brett Kavanaugh, which led to overturning Roe — it is extremely salient, and it moves that voter," said Mini Timmaraju, president of Reproductive Freedom for All.

The Kavanaugh vote is seen by Democrats as a character assessment, indicating a willingness to "side with extremism over your own constituents." This perspective suggests that voters' stated priorities might not fully capture the emotional impact of such decisions.

Kristalina Georgieva, a pollster at KFF, noted that the post-Dobbs landscape has shifted the profile of the single-issue abortion voter, who is now more likely to be a Democrat, younger, a woman of color, and potentially less likely to vote in midterm elections. Abortion messaging, therefore, aims to achieve both turnout among these groups and persuasion among reliable voters, such as older women.

Planned Parenthood and WinSenate ads often feature women expressing regret over past support for Collins, seeking to motivate a shift in voting behavior. The campaign's success hinges on whether the Kavanaugh vote, combined with other factors, can sway enough voters to alter the outcome.

Jackson's Evolving Stance

Collins's opponent, Troy Jackson, presents a complex narrative. Initially holding anti-abortion views, Jackson has since stated his evolution on the issue, attributing it to conversations with women, doctors, and community members. He now emphasizes that "abortion access was healthcare."

Jackson has co-sponsored legislation expanding abortion access in Maine and championed a shield law protecting reproductive and gender-affirming care providers and patients. His campaign asserts he is "rock solid" on reproductive rights, contrasting his position with Collins.

Collins's campaign spokesperson has accused Jackson of changing his stance for "political convenience."

Recent polls in Maine show Jackson leading narrowly, though within the margin of error. Public sentiment in Maine largely views the Dobbs decision negatively, with a significant portion expressing anger. Additionally, a majority of Mainers surveyed worry that Collins votes with former President Trump too often.

The outcome of this race is expected to offer insights into the electorate's response to actions restricting abortion access. If Collins loses, abortion rights groups will likely interpret it as evidence that the issue remains a powerful motivator. A Collins victory, however, may be attributed to a confluence of factors specific to her incumbency and the Maine political landscape, rather than a definitive statement on the electoral impact of judicial votes.