Aaron Judge is slated to rejoin the New York Yankees lineup on Tuesday night for their game against the Colorado Rockies, marking his return to play for the first time since May 31. Oddsmakers are anticipating a successful comeback for the outfielder, with the Yankees listed as significant favorites.
The Yankees enter the matchup as -340 favorites on the moneyline and -155 to cover the run line. They are also even odds to win the game by at least three runs. Judge himself is a -190 favorite to record at least one hit and has odds of +260 to hit a home run in his first game back.
The Rockies are presenting a favorable matchup for Judge's return. Colorado is considered one of baseball's weaker teams, and the Yankees will be playing at their home ballpark, Yankee Stadium. The Rockies' starting pitcher, rookie Gabriel Hughes, has struggled in his first season, posting a 6.19 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Despite his surface numbers, Hughes' Statcast data shows potential, as he ranks highly in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and average exit velocity, indicating he avoids hard contact.
While Hughes' profile may give some pause regarding the bet on Judge to hit a home run, an alternative bet is suggested based on Judge's plate discipline. The Yankees slugger is known for his patience at the plate, a trait that could prove advantageous against Hughes, who has a high walk rate. The bet highlighted is for Judge to draw at least one walk, with odds at +110.
The betting analysis was provided by Michael Leboff, who has a decade of experience in the gambling industry and focuses on using game theory to inform sports betting picks.