Students are anticipated to receive their best A-level results to date, with top grades expected to reach a record high outside of the pandemic period, according to new analysis.
The University of Buckingham's Centre for Education and Employment Research predicts that nearly three in ten A-level entries will achieve at least an A grade, and almost one in ten will receive an A*.
The report also forecasts that boys will widen their lead over girls in achieving top grades, continuing a trend observed last year. Hundreds of thousands of students are set to receive their results this week, determining their university admissions.
While the increase in top grades may be less than half a percentage point, this translates to thousands of additional high marks. This would mark the third consecutive year of rising top grades. The report attributes this trend not to artificial grade inflation, but to the increasing popularity of mathematics, a subject that historically yields more A and A* grades than other disciplines.
"The good news for those anxiously awaiting the 2026 results is that more top grades are likely to be awarded than in any year ever, outside those sent through the roof by teacher assessment during Covid," stated Professor Alan Smithers, the report's author. He suggested that post-pandemic, a new upward trend may be emerging, driven by changes in subject entry patterns rather than grade inflation.
Last year, 28.3% of entries received at least an A, and 9.4% scored an A*. These figures were the highest recorded outside the 2020-2022 pandemic years, when exams were canceled and teacher assessments inflated grades.
Mathematics has become the most popular subject, with entries showing a steady increase, including a 3.9% rise this year. Further mathematics entries have also grown, up by 8.6%.
"Maths emerged as the main driver of overall outcomes in 2025, since it had by far the largest entry and was among the highest awarders of top grades. Along with further maths, it accounted for nearly a quarter of the A* grades awarded," the report noted. The clarity of correct answers in mathematics allows markers to confidently use the full grading range, contributing to its higher proportion of top grades compared to arts and humanities.
Professor Smithers suggested that the rise in mathematics popularity is likely linked to improved job prospects, a factor he sees as unsurprising given current challenges faced by young people.
Last year, boys' entries achieved A or A* grades at a rate of 28.4%, a 0.2 percentage point lead over girls' entries at 28.2%. This gender gap is also thought to be influenced by the growth in high-scoring mathematics, which is more commonly studied by boys.
The report also highlighted that Northern Ireland is expected to continue its long-standing trend of outperforming other UK regions in A-level results. Last year, the country was 8 percentage points ahead of England in A* to C grades, a success attributed to its retention of the grammar school system. In contrast, England has a limited number of such schools.
"Northern Ireland's success could be an inconvenient truth. It retains grammar schools and academic selection at age 11," Professor Smithers commented. He added that this success is not as widely recognized or studied outside Northern Ireland as it could be.
A Department for Education spokesperson stated that young people can be confident their grades will accurately reflect their abilities. The department characterized the University of Buckingham's report as speculative, noting that relevant data had not yet been released. They encouraged students to be proud of their efforts and to explore all available options after receiving their results.