Pupils are anticipated to achieve their highest A-level results to date, excluding pandemic years, with top grades predicted to reach a record high, according to new analysis from the University of Buckingham.
The report from Buckingham's Centre for Education and Employment Research forecasts that nearly 30% of all entries will be awarded at least an A grade, and close to 10% will achieve an A*. This would mark the third consecutive year of an increase in top grades, a trend the report attributes not to grade inflation, but to the rising popularity of mathematics.
Mathematics has emerged as the primary driver for these outcomes, accounting for a substantial portion of high-scoring entries. The report notes that maths and further maths together were responsible for nearly a quarter of all A* grades awarded in the past year. Professor Alan Smithers, the report's author, highlighted that subjects like mathematics offer clearer criteria for correct answers, allowing markers more confidence in assigning a full range of grades.
He further suggested that the increased interest in mathematics may be linked to improved job prospects for students, acknowledging the current challenges young people face in the job market. Boys are also predicted to further increase their lead over girls in achieving top grades, a trend that began last year. In the previous year, boys' entries achieved A or A* grades at a rate of 28.4%, a slight lead over girls at 28.2%. This gender gap is also partly attributed to the higher proportion of boys taking mathematics.
Last year, 28.3% of entries received at least an A grade, with 9.4% earning an A*. These figures represent the highest recorded outside of the 2020-2022 period, when exams were cancelled and grades were determined by teachers.
The report also pointed to Northern Ireland's consistent outperformance in A-level results compared to the rest of the UK, a pattern observed for at least 25 years. The region was eight percentage points ahead of England in A* to C grades last year. Professor Smithers suggested this success could be linked to Northern Ireland's retention of the grammar school system, a model that has largely been phased out in England.
A spokesperson for the Department for Education stated that ahead of results day, students and parents can be assured that grades will accurately reflect their abilities, and that the University of Buckingham's report is speculative as relevant data has not yet been released. The department encouraged students to be proud of their efforts and to explore all available options after receiving their results.