A 1997 book positing that American history moves in roughly 80-year cycles, each culminating in a period of upheaval called a 'Crisis,' is gaining renewed attention for its prediction that such a period will reach its resolution around 2026. Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe argued in "The Fourth Turning" that a new crisis began in the mid-2000s, would reach a climax around 2020, and conclude approximately six years later. This forecast has drawn fresh scrutiny as some readers draw parallels between the book's warnings and recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, and social unrest.
Strauss and Howe, who also coined the term 'Millennials,' predicted that this turbulent era could fundamentally reshape the United States, and in its most alarming predictions, even threaten the nation's survival. They wrote that the climax of the crisis would be due around 2020, with the resolution around 2026, cautioning that "What will America be like as it exits the Fourth Turning? History offers no guarantees."
The book did not specifically foretell events like 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, or the COVID-19 pandemic. However, proponents argue that it accurately anticipated the broader trajectory of the U.S. toward a period of deep instability characterized by economic volatility, political polarization, and declining trust in institutions. They note that the authors suggested turmoil would reach a climax around 2020, which they see aligned with the pandemic, social unrest, and political upheaval of that year.
Critics, however, contend that the predictions were broad enough to allow for retroactive matching with significant historical events, pointing out the lack of specific crisis forecasting in the original text. The authors also warned that societies throughout history have collapsed under the weight of war, disease, political turmoil, or economic catastrophe, suggesting America should not assume immunity.
The theory posits that American history progresses through four phases: a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling, and a Crisis (the Fourth Turning). According to Strauss and Howe, the U.S. is nearing the end of a cycle that began after World War II, with earlier cycles culminating in events like the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II. The theory gained traction after the 2008 financial crisis, which some viewed as evidence the Fourth Turning had commenced. The book also noted a decline in faith in the 'American Dream,' a concern that some readers believe has become a defining aspect of contemporary American life.
Neil Howe, following Strauss's death in 2007, revisited the theory in his 2023 book "The Fourth Turning Is Here." While Howe adjusted the predicted climax to the 2030s, he maintained that the current period of instability is part of the same historical cycle. Despite the book's stark warnings, Howe has suggested the theory ultimately carries a message of hope, asserting that just as past crisis eras gave way to rebuilding, the current turmoil will eventually pass, potentially leading to a new period of civic trust and stability by the mid-2030s.